MAA vs ESS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Mid-America Apartment and Essex Property Trust are both apartment REITs, but Mid-America concentrates on faster-growing Sun Belt markets with more new supply competition, while Essex concentrates on supply-constrained West Coast coastal markets with higher barriers to new construction.
Mid-America offers exposure to Sun Belt population and job growth trends, while Essex offers exposure to supply-constrained coastal markets with structurally limited new construction. Consider whether you prefer Mid-America's growth-market exposure or Essex's supply-constrained coastal market positioning.
ESS holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ESS has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+5.48% vs -7.71%), though MAA has the better forward P/E setup (39.52x vs 46.06x for ESS). ESS leads on both revenue growth (3.10%) and operating margin (33.98%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MAA (+10.98%) than for ESS (+7.38%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to apartment communities across faster-growing Sun Belt markets
- Believe population and job growth migration trends support long-term demand
- Value a development and redevelopment pipeline as a complementary growth avenue
- Are comfortable with elevated new supply pressuring near-term rent growth
- Want exposure to apartment communities in supply-constrained West Coast coastal markets
- Believe high barriers to new construction support favorable long-term rent growth dynamics
- Value deep local market expertise built over a long operating history
- Are comfortable with concentrated exposure to West Coast regional economic conditions
| Metric | MAA | ESS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 37.3 | 37.4 |
| AI ranki | #1461 | #1451 |
| Latest closei | $118.34 | $265.56 |
| 1M returni | +2.66% | -1.15% |
| 3M returni | -11.34% | -7.11% |
| 6M returni | -8.31% | +0.34% |
| 1Y returni | -7.71% | +5.48% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MAA | ESS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.28K (-7.2%) started 2025-11-03 | $10.44K (+4.4%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $7.54K (-24.6%) started 2021-11-03 | $10.26K (+2.6%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $23.72K (+137.2%) started 2016-11-03 | $22.02K (+120.2%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MAA | ESS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $15.42B | $19.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 37.90 | 44.24 |
| Forward P/Ei | 39.52 | 46.06 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 9.40 | 12.68 |
| Analyst targeti | $143.84 | $304.99 |
| Target upsidei | +10.98% | +7.38% |
| Metric | MAA | ESS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 1.00% | 3.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 13.70% | -71.80% |
| EPS growthi | +13.70% | -71.80% |
| FCF margini | +41.52% | +52.70% |
| Operating margini | 25.36% | 33.98% |
| Profit margini | 18.17% | 20.89% |
| ROIC proxyi | 7.05% | 7.71% |
| Return on equityi | 7.05% | 7.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.72% | 3.69% |
| Payout ratioi | 185.00% | 191.84% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| Debt/equityi | 102.38 | 122.41 |
| Current ratioi | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.03 | 0.09 |
Over the past year, MAA and ESS have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.79), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MAA | ESS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -7.25% | +4.42% |
| CAGRi | -7.27% | +4.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.19% | 20.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.54 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.76 | 0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 19.68% | 12.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.77% | 10.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.92% | 3.80% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.72% | 4.88% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.21% | 5.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.67% | 6.10% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -34.00% | -10.21% |
| CAGRi | -7.98% | -2.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.33% | 23.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.46 | -0.16 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.65 | -0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.40% | 43.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.49% | 17.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.59% | 20.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.22% | 23.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.45% | 7.92% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.45% | 16.65% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +69.26% | +60.49% |
| CAGRi | +5.40% | +4.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.10% | 25.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | 0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.21 | 0.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.40% | 44.84% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.49% | 17.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.65% | 14.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.54% | 19.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.71% | 18.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.56% | 28.80% |
| Category | MAA | ESS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | Essex Property Trust, Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Residential | REIT - Residential |
| Core business | A real estate investment trust that owns and operates apartment communities concentrated across Sun Belt markets in the southeastern and southwestern United States. | A real estate investment trust that owns and operates apartment communities concentrated in West Coast markets including California and the Seattle metro area. |
| Investor focus | Same-store revenue and occupancy trends across Sun Belt markets, new supply absorption, and development pipeline contribution to growth. | Same-store revenue and occupancy trends across West Coast coastal markets, supply constraints in its core markets, and rent growth relative to wage trends. |
- Concentrated Sun Belt exposure benefits from population and job growth migration trends toward those markets
- Diversified portfolio across multiple Sun Belt metro areas reduces reliance on any single local market
- Development and redevelopment pipeline provides a complementary growth avenue beyond same-store performance
- Concentration in supply-constrained West Coast coastal markets supports generally favorable long-term rent growth dynamics
- High barriers to new apartment construction in its core markets limit new supply competition relative to Sun Belt markets
- Long operating history in its core West Coast markets provides deep local market expertise
- Elevated new apartment supply in several Sun Belt markets has pressured rent growth in recent periods
- Regional concentration means broader Sun Belt economic conditions have an outsized effect on results
- Interest rate movements affect both financing costs and acquisition and development economics
- Concentrated West Coast exposure makes results more sensitive to regional economic conditions and outmigration trends
- Higher cost of living in core markets can affect renter affordability and demand at the margin
- Interest rate movements affect both financing costs and REIT valuation multiples
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