RXO vs CHRW Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
RXO is a newly independent technology-forward freight broker with a growth orientation, while CHRW is the largest traditional freight broker working to modernize operations and improve efficiency. Both compete in the same truckload and LTL freight brokerage market subject to the same freight volume and margin cycles.
RXO vs CHRW contrasts a newer technology-forward digital freight broker against the largest traditional North American freight brokerage incumbent, both navigating freight market cyclicality.
CHRW holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RXO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+62.71% vs +12.35%), though CHRW has the better forward P/E setup (20.05x vs 32.75x for RXO). On fundamentals, RXO is growing revenue faster (25.00%), while CHRW maintains the higher operating margin (5.34%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CHRW (+32.88%) than for RXO (+23.66%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a technology-forward freight brokerage with digital platform differentiation and growth orientation
- See RXO's technology investment as providing long-term efficiency and margin advantages over traditional brokerage models
- Are comfortable with a newer public company (post-2022 XPO spin-off) without extended standalone financial history
- Want the largest, most established North American freight broker with a multi-decade track record and carrier network scale
- See C.H. Robinson's efficiency restructuring as a catalyst for margin recovery in a freight cycle normalization
- Value the breadth of service offering across truckload, LTL, air, ocean, and managed logistics for enterprise shipper relationships
| Metric | RXO | CHRW |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 29.2 | 40.0 |
| AI ranki | #2276 | #1106 |
| Latest closei | $29.06 | $143.82 |
| 1M returni | +48.49% | -8.76% |
| 3M returni | +1.82% | -30.10% |
| 6M returni | +61.62% | -20.81% |
| 1Y returni | +62.71% | +12.35% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | RXO | CHRW |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.27K (+62.7%) started 2025-10-15 | $11.42K (+14.2%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $13.84K (+38.4%) started 2022-10-27 | $17.89K (+78.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $13.84K (+38.4%) started 2022-10-27 | $32.45K (+224.5%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | RXO | CHRW |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $3.26B | $17.57B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 28.81 |
| Forward P/Ei | 32.75 | 20.05 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.66 | 1.14 |
| Analyst targeti | $24.47 | $199.84 |
| Target upsidei | +23.66% | +32.88% |
| Metric | RXO | CHRW |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.00% | 19.30% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 23.80% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +23.80% |
| FCF margini | +0.09% | +2.83% |
| Operating margini | 0.68% | 5.34% |
| Profit margini | -1.72% | 3.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | -6.79% | 37.12% |
| Return on equityi | -6.79% | 37.12% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.68% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 47.90% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.99 | 0.95 |
| Debt/equityi | 48.34 | 121.19 |
| Current ratioi | 1.27 | 1.58 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.19 | 1.53 |
Over the past year, RXO and CHRW have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.41), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | RXO | CHRW |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +62.71% | +14.15% |
| CAGRi | +62.76% | +14.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 74.88% | 46.16% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.97 | 0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.41 | 0.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.07% | 35.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.82% | 31.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.06% | 11.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.75% | 16.11% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.10% | 15.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.62% | 28.51% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +38.38% | +62.53% |
| CAGRi | +8.53% | +10.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.41% | 34.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 67.15% | 40.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.90% | 31.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.91% | 14.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.73% | 17.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.10% | 15.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.62% | 28.51% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +38.38% | +157.81% |
| CAGRi | +8.53% | +9.94% | |
| Volatilityi | 57.41% | 30.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.51 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 67.15% | 40.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.90% | 31.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.91% | 12.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.73% | 15.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.10% | 15.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.62% | 28.51% |
| Category | RXO | CHRW |
|---|---|---|
| Company | RXO, Inc. | C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Trucking | Integrated Freight & Logistics |
| Core business | RXO is a tech-enabled freight brokerage company spun off from XPO in 2022, providing truckload, LTL, and managed transportation services, positioning itself as a technology-forward broker using digital tools to match shippers with carriers more efficiently. | C.H. Robinson is the largest non-asset freight broker in North America, providing truckload, LTL, air, ocean, and managed logistics services through its Navisphere technology platform, connecting shippers with a carrier network spanning North America and internationally. |
| Investor focus | Investors track RXO's gross revenue, net revenue (gross profit after carrier costs), volume trends, and technology platform investment driving operating efficiency improvements in its brokerage operations. | Investors track C.H. Robinson's net revenue (gross profit), operating expenses as the company restructures to improve efficiency, volume growth, and market share in a challenging freight brokerage cycle. |
- Technology-forward positioning with digital tools for carrier matching, load management, and shipper self-service differentiation from traditional brokerage
- XPO heritage provides operational expertise and shipper relationships as RXO establishes itself as an independent public company
- Asset-light brokerage model generates returns without the capital intensity of owning trucking equipment
- Largest North American freight broker by volume with unmatched carrier network access and shipper relationships built over decades
- Navisphere technology platform provides shipper visibility and carrier integration at enterprise scale
- Diversified service offering across truckload, LTL, air, ocean, and customs provides multiple revenue streams and cross-selling opportunities
- Freight brokerage is a highly cyclical and competitive market — broker margins compress significantly in freight market downturns as excess capacity gives carriers bargaining power
- RXO is a relatively new public company (2022 spin-off) without an extended standalone track record for investors to evaluate
- Technology investment required to differentiate from incumbents (Coyote, Echo, Transplace) requires sustained R&D spending
- Freight market cycles dramatically affect C.H. Robinson's margins — when trucking is oversupplied, broker margins collapse as carriers have little pricing power
- Operational expense structure requires further rationalization as C.H. Robinson works to improve efficiency versus nimbler digital-native competitors
- New digital freight brokers (Convoy, Transfix) and traditional incumbents have all invested in technology, challenging CHRW's historical technology moat
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