STZ vs TAP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Constellation Brands and Molson Coors both compete in beer, but Constellation is concentrated on premium imported Mexican beer brands with a beer-focused portfolio strategy, while Molson Coors spans a broader mix of value and premium beer brands alongside growing non-alcoholic and beyond-beer categories.
Constellation Brands offers a focused bet on premium imported beer growth, while Molson Coors offers diversification across value and premium beer tiers plus a beyond-beer growth strategy. Consider whether you prefer Constellation's premium beer concentration or Molson Coors' broader portfolio diversification.
STZ holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. STZ has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-1.08% vs -11.55%), though TAP has the better forward P/E setup (8.44x vs 10.55x for STZ). On fundamentals, TAP is growing revenue faster (-3.30%), while STZ maintains the higher operating margin (35.93%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for STZ (+30.71%) than for TAP (+9.69%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want concentrated exposure to premium imported beer brand growth in the U.S. market
- Believe the ongoing wine and spirits divestitures will sharpen the portfolio and improve returns
- Value strong brand equity and consistent volume growth relative to the broader beer category
- Are comfortable with brand concentration risk in a relatively narrow beer portfolio
- Want exposure to a diversified value and premium beer brand portfolio
- Believe expansion into non-alcoholic and beyond-beer categories provides a useful growth avenue
- Value ongoing cost efficiency programs supporting margin improvement
- Are comfortable with long-term core beer category volume headwinds
| Metric | STZ | TAP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 28.3 | 26.6 |
| AI ranki | #2295 | #2452 |
| Latest closei | $138.68 | $41.21 |
| 1M returni | +18.97% | +12.53% |
| 3M returni | +6.55% | +0.63% |
| 6M returni | -11.10% | -2.90% |
| 1Y returni | -1.08% | -11.55% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | STZ | TAP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.93K (-0.7%) started 2025-10-23 | $9.03K (-9.7%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $7.17K (-28.3%) started 2021-10-25 | $11.61K (+16.1%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $10.63K (+6.3%) started 2016-10-24 | $5.85K (-41.5%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | STZ | TAP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $22.32B | $7.73B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.46 | 8.52 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.55 | 8.44 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.00 | 0.93 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.65 | 1.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $170.83 | $45.48 |
| Target upsidei | +30.71% | +9.69% |
| Metric | STZ | TAP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -3.30% | -3.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 30.70% | -42.30% |
| EPS growthi | +30.70% | -42.30% |
| FCF margini | +24.41% | +8.44% |
| Operating margini | 35.93% | 11.30% |
| Profit margini | 20.14% | -20.81% |
| ROIC proxyi | 23.69% | -19.47% |
| Return on equityi | 23.69% | -19.47% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.13% | 4.63% |
| Payout ratioi | 36.71% | 35.97% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| Debt/equityi | 123.20 | 76.03 |
| Current ratioi | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.25 | 0.63 |
Over the past year, STZ and TAP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.55), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | STZ | TAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -0.74% | -9.67% |
| CAGRi | -0.75% | -9.68% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.01% | 29.21% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | -0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.02 | -0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 32.34% | 33.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.80% | 24.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.33% | 16.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.12% | 20.18% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.04% | 4.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.68% | 9.24% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -32.45% | +4.36% |
| CAGRi | -7.55% | +0.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.53% | 26.14% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.36 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.47 | -0.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.55% | 46.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 47.79% | 38.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.19% | 16.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.72% | 20.81% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.09% | 10.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.31% | 10.78% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -7.13% | -53.30% |
| CAGRi | -0.74% | -7.33% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.39% | 28.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.05 | -0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.07 | -0.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.55% | 66.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 47.79% | 53.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.65% | 40.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.45% | 42.34% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.09% | 15.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.09% | 22.50% |
| Category | STZ | TAP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Constellation Brands, Inc. | Molson Coors Beverage Company |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Beverages - Brewers | Beverages - Brewers |
| Core business | A beverage alcohol company best known for importing and marketing premium Mexican beer brands in the United States, alongside a smaller wine and spirits portfolio that it has been actively reshaping. | A beverage alcohol company with a portfolio spanning value and premium beer brands, alongside a growing presence in non-alcoholic and beyond-beer beverage categories in North America and select international markets. |
| Investor focus | Premium beer brand volume and pricing growth, progress on wine and spirits portfolio divestitures, and margin trends as the business becomes more beer-concentrated. | Core beer brand volume and pricing trends, growth in non-alcoholic and beyond-beer categories, and progress on cost efficiency initiatives. |
- Portfolio of premium imported Mexican beer brands has captured a growing share of U.S. beer consumption
- Focused beer strategy benefits from strong brand equity and consistent volume growth relative to the broader beer category
- Ongoing divestiture of lower-growth wine and spirits assets is sharpening the portfolio around its highest-return beer business
- Diversified brand portfolio spanning value and premium beer tiers provides flexibility across consumer segments
- Expansion into non-alcoholic and beyond-beer categories provides a growth avenue beyond traditional beer volume trends
- Ongoing cost efficiency programs have supported margin improvement in recent periods
- Beer business carries concentration risk given its reliance on a relatively narrow set of imported brands
- Wine and spirits divestitures can create near-term revenue and earnings volatility during the transition
- Faces competition from other premium and craft beer brands competing for the same consumer segment
- Core beer category volume has faced long-term headwinds from shifting consumer beverage preferences
- Value-tier beer brands face pricing pressure amid a more cost-conscious consumer environment
- Faces competition from both larger global brewers and craft and premium beer alternatives
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