WMT vs KR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
WMT and KR compete directly in groceries with very different economics. Walmart uses grocery to drive traffic and increasingly earns profit from advertising, marketplace fees, and memberships, which lifts margins above what retail alone supports. Kroger is a pure grocer with strong regional positions and private label, but without those higher-margin adjacent income streams at comparable scale.
Use this WMT vs KR comparison to see how much of modern retail profit comes from outside the shelf. Walmart's advertising and membership revenue changes its margin profile in a way that a pure grocer cannot easily replicate. Kroger competes on local density, private label, and cost control, which is a narrower but real advantage.
WMT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WMT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+5.11% vs -10.39%), though KR has the better forward P/E setup (10.39x vs 31.99x for WMT). WMT leads on both revenue growth (5.90%) and operating margin (4.99%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +23.90% for WMT and +22.06% for KR.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want scale, price leadership, and grocery-driven traffic
- Value growing advertising, marketplace, and membership income
- Believe e-commerce profitability will keep improving
- Accept thin retail margins and a valuation reflecting high expectations
- Want focused grocery exposure with strong regional market shares
- Value private label manufacturing as a margin and loyalty tool
- Prefer a more modest valuation than large-cap retail leaders
- Accept the absence of a general merchandise margin mix and blocked merger path
| Metric | WMT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.0 | 41.5 |
| AI ranki | #318 | #928 |
| Latest closei | $107.98 | $58.74 |
| 1M returni | +3.49% | +0.39% |
| 6M returni | -12.13% | -19.78% |
| 1Y returni | +5.11% | -10.39% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WMT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.48K (+4.8%) started 2025-09-25 | $8.97K (-10.3%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $25.29K (+152.9%) started 2021-09-27 | $17.24K (+72.4%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $62.59K (+525.9%) started 2016-09-26 | $28.56K (+185.6%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WMT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $820.4B | $35.36B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 37.35 | 33.75 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.99 | 10.39 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.14 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.21 | 0.45 |
| Analyst targeti | $127.73 | $70.45 |
| Target upsidei | +23.90% | +22.06% |
| Metric | WMT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.90% | 2.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -9.10% | 13.20% |
| EPS growthi | -9.10% | +13.20% |
| FCF margini | +1.22% | +2.01% |
| Operating margini | 4.99% | 3.22% |
| Profit margini | 3.00% | 0.71% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.31% | 13.78% |
| Return on equityi | 22.31% | 13.78% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.96% | 2.53% |
| Payout ratioi | 34.96% | 75.68% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.60 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 70.38 | 373.45 |
| Current ratioi | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.20 | 0.28 |
Over the past year, WMT and KR have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.32), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WMT | KR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +4.78% | -10.31% |
| CAGRi | +4.79% | -10.32% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.09% | 28.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.14 | -0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.19 | -0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.52% | 26.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.54% | 22.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.96% | 11.61% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.47% | 14.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.15% | 8.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.67% | 13.83% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +139.84% | +58.49% |
| CAGRi | +19.14% | +9.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.48% | 27.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.70 | 0.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.74% | 31.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.54% | 22.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.46% | 13.37% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.98% | 16.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.38% | 8.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.49% | 13.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +428.82% | +134.17% |
| CAGRi | +18.13% | +8.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.13% | 29.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.74% | 43.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.54% | 22.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.32% | 15.41% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.76% | 18.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.38% | 18.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.49% | 27.58% |
| Category | WMT | KR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Walmart Inc. | The Kroger Co. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Grocery Stores |
| Core business | Largest retailer in the world, selling groceries and general merchandise through supercentres, Sam's Club warehouse clubs, and international operations, with growing e-commerce, third-party marketplace, retail advertising, and membership businesses. | One of the largest US supermarket operators, running food retail under numerous regional banners, with fuel centres, food manufacturing plants, a substantial private label programme, and digital fulfilment including automated warehouses. |
| Investor focus | Comparable sales and transaction growth, grocery market share, e-commerce profitability, advertising and membership income growth, and operating margin expansion. | Identical sales excluding fuel, private label penetration, digital sales growth and profitability, fuel margins, and cost savings programmes. |
- Unmatched purchasing scale and logistics network drive price leadership
- Advertising, marketplace, and membership income carry far higher margins than retail sales
- Grocery strength brings customers in frequently, supporting general merchandise attachment
- Deep regional banner loyalty and local market share in many metropolitan areas
- Strong private label programme with its own manufacturing supports margin and differentiation
- Fuel centres and pharmacy add traffic and ancillary income
- Retail margins remain thin, so small operating errors matter at this revenue scale
- Tariffs and sourcing costs affect general merchandise pricing
- Valuation has reflected high expectations for the higher-margin income streams
- Grocery-only model lacks the general merchandise margin mix Walmart enjoys
- Its planned merger with another major grocer was blocked, removing a scale path
- Digital fulfilment is expensive to build and hard to make profitable in grocery
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