WMT vs TJX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
WMT and TJX both compete on value but through opposite mechanisms. Walmart offers everyday low prices on a predictable assortment, using scale and increasingly advertising and membership income. TJX offers branded goods at a discount in an assortment that changes constantly, which generates full-price sell-through, high inventory turns, and store visits driven by discovery rather than lists.
Use this WMT vs TJX comparison to compare two durable value models. Walmart's advantage is cost and frequency; TJX's is buying skill and the shopping experience, which has proved difficult for online retail to replicate. Both benefit when consumers trade down, for somewhat different reasons.
TJX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WMT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+5.11% vs -7.39%), though TJX has the better forward P/E setup (23.47x vs 31.99x for WMT). On fundamentals, WMT is growing revenue faster (5.90%), while TJX maintains the higher operating margin (10.91%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +23.90% for WMT and +26.11% for TJX.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want grocery-anchored traffic and scale-driven price leadership
- Value the margin lift from advertising and membership income
- Prefer staples-like resilience within a retailer
- Accept thin core retail margins and a demanding valuation
- Want an off-price model with high inventory turns and little promotion
- Value a shopping experience that online retail struggles to replicate
- Believe trade-down behaviour supports comparable sales
- Accept discretionary category exposure and dependence on inventory availability
| Metric | WMT | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.0 | 51.4 |
| AI ranki | #318 | #407 |
| Latest closei | $107.98 | $130.06 |
| 1M returni | +3.49% | -4.95% |
| 6M returni | -12.13% | -16.16% |
| 1Y returni | +5.11% | -7.39% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WMT | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.48K (+4.8%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.19K (-8.1%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $25.29K (+152.9%) started 2021-09-27 | $20.52K (+105.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $62.59K (+525.9%) started 2016-09-26 | $44.73K (+347.3%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WMT | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $820.4B | $149.27B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 37.35 | 25.02 |
| Forward P/Ei | 31.99 | 23.47 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.14 | 2.51 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.21 | 2.55 |
| Analyst targeti | $127.73 | $170.40 |
| Target upsidei | +23.90% | +26.11% |
| Metric | WMT | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.90% | 5.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -9.10% | 23.60% |
| EPS growthi | -9.10% | +23.60% |
| FCF margini | +1.22% | +7.05% |
| Operating margini | 4.99% | 10.91% |
| Profit margini | 3.00% | 9.73% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.31% | 62.17% |
| Return on equityi | 22.31% | 62.17% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.96% | 1.43% |
| Payout ratioi | 34.96% | 32.50% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| Debt/equityi | 70.38 | 134.42 |
| Current ratioi | 0.77 | 1.15 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.20 | 0.56 |
Over the past year, WMT and TJX have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.34), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WMT | TJX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +4.78% | -8.06% |
| CAGRi | +4.79% | -8.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.09% | 20.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.14 | -0.51 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.19 | -0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.52% | 27.06% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.54% | 22.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.96% | 5.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.47% | 8.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.15% | 6.04% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.67% | 8.53% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +139.84% | +93.55% |
| CAGRi | +19.14% | +14.13% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.48% | 22.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.70 | 0.50 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 0.73 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.74% | 27.68% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.54% | 22.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.46% | 5.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.98% | 8.66% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.38% | 6.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.49% | 13.72% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +428.82% | +291.90% |
| CAGRi | +18.13% | +14.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.13% | 26.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.97 | 0.70 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.74% | 42.55% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.54% | 22.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.32% | 6.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.76% | 9.29% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.38% | 20.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.49% | 28.23% |
| Category | WMT | TJX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Walmart Inc. | The TJX Companies, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Discount Stores | Apparel Retail |
| Core business | Largest global retailer, selling groceries and general merchandise through supercentres, warehouse clubs, and international banners, with expanding e-commerce, marketplace, advertising, and membership businesses. | Off-price retailer operating T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and international banners, buying branded apparel and home goods opportunistically and selling them at discounts in a constantly changing assortment. |
| Investor focus | Comparable sales, grocery share, e-commerce profitability, advertising and membership growth, and margin expansion. | Comparable store sales and transaction growth, merchandise margin, availability of attractive buying opportunities, store openings, and inventory turns. |
- Purchasing and logistics scale that supports consistent price leadership
- High-margin advertising, marketplace, and membership income improving the profit mix
- Grocery frequency brings customers in regularly regardless of the economy
- Opportunistic buying model turns other retailers' excess inventory into its own advantage
- Treasure-hunt assortment drives frequent visits and full-price purchasing without promotions
- Deliberately small e-commerce exposure avoids the margin drag of online apparel returns
- Core retail margins are thin at enormous revenue
- Sourcing costs and tariffs pressure general merchandise pricing
- Expectations embedded in the valuation are high
- Depends on the availability of excess branded inventory, which tightens when the supply chain is disciplined
- Apparel and home goods are discretionary, unlike groceries
- Limited online presence is a risk if shopping habits shift further away from stores
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