CARG vs CVNA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CarGurus operates an asset-light marketplace model monetized through dealer subscriptions, while Carvana is a vertically integrated used-vehicle retailer that owns inventory, logistics, and financing end to end. The comparison typically weighs marketplace-style margin stability against a retailer's higher operating leverage and turnaround trajectory.
Use this CARG vs CVNA comparison to separate an asset-light auto marketplace from a vertically integrated used-vehicle retailer: CarGurus offers steadier, subscription-based marketplace economics, while Carvana offers higher operating leverage tied to its post-restructuring turnaround and unit growth.
CARG holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CARG leads on both 1-year return (-13.53%) and forward P/E quality (9.54x vs 33.20x for CVNA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CVNA is growing revenue faster (52.40%), while CARG maintains the higher operating margin (25.27%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CARG (+43.06%) than for CVNA (+10.49%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Prefer an asset-light marketplace model with high incremental margins
- Want lower balance-sheet and inventory risk than a vehicle retailer
- Value diversified dealer subscription and advertising revenue streams
- Seek steadier exposure to online car shopping trends
- Believe Carvana's post-restructuring turnaround and unit growth can continue
- Are comfortable with a capital-intensive, vertically integrated retail model
- Want direct exposure to used vehicle volume and gross-profit-per-unit trends
- Can tolerate a company still carrying meaningful debt from its restructuring history
| Metric | CARG | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 31.5 | 46.3 |
| AI ranki | #2101 | #349 |
| Latest closei | $30.30 | $60.62 |
| 1M returni | -13.43% | -9.39% |
| 3M returni | -15.88% | -14.21% |
| 6M returni | -16.32% | -83.27% |
| 1Y returni | -13.53% | -82.94% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CARG | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.65K (-13.5%) started 2025-10-15 | $1.76K (-82.4%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $8.74K (-12.6%) started 2021-10-15 | $2.1K (-79.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $10.99K (+9.9%) started 2017-10-12 | $54.61K (+446.1%) started 2017-04-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CARG | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.57B | $83.25B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 15.35 | 39.74 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.54 | 33.20 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.72 | 2.22 |
| Analyst targeti | $41.27 | $82.98 |
| Target upsidei | +43.06% | +10.49% |
| Metric | CARG | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.10% | 52.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 141.00% | 61.50% |
| EPS growthi | +141.00% | +61.50% |
| FCF margini | +24.95% | +1.69% |
| Operating margini | 25.27% | 9.22% |
| Profit margini | 18.19% | 6.26% |
| ROIC proxyi | 53.47% | 58.77% |
| Return on equityi | 53.47% | 58.77% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.22 | 3.49 |
| Debt/equityi | 70.03 | 110.88 |
| Current ratioi | 1.85 | 3.93 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.51 | 1.72 |
Over the past year, CARG and CVNA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CARG | CVNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -13.53% | -82.41% |
| CAGRi | -13.54% | -82.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.17% | 101.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.29 | -0.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.40 | -0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.92% | 87.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 22.37% | 87.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.43% | 47.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.39% | 59.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.96% | 80.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.28% | 82.62% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -12.58% | -79.02% |
| CAGRi | -2.65% | -26.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.26% | 117.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.10 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.15 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.38% | 98.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.46% | 87.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 41.40% | 57.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 45.20% | 67.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.51% | 80.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 39.69% | 82.62% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +9.86% | +446.13% |
| CAGRi | +1.05% | +19.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.24% | 101.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.26 | 1.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.66% | 98.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 45.81% | 87.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.88% | 40.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 47.41% | 53.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.54% | 80.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 39.69% | 82.62% |
| Category | CARG | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CarGurus, Inc. | Carvana Co. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Internet Content & Information | Auto & Truck Dealerships |
| Core business | CarGurus operates an online marketplace connecting car buyers with dealer inventory, monetizing primarily through dealer subscription and advertising products rather than owning vehicle inventory itself. | Carvana buys, reconditions, and sells used vehicles directly to consumers through an online platform paired with its own logistics, vending-machine pickup locations, and financing operations. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch CarGurus's dealer subscriber growth and retention, its asset-light marketplace margins, and its wholesale/digital retail (CarOffer) segment performance. | Investors focus on Carvana's unit sales growth, gross profit per unit, and its balance sheet and debt load following its earlier near-bankruptcy restructuring and subsequent turnaround. |
- Asset-light marketplace model with high incremental margins on dealer subscriptions
- Large, established consumer traffic base for vehicle shopping
- Diversified monetization through dealer subscriptions, advertising, and wholesale products
- Vertically integrated model covering reconditioning, logistics, sales, and financing
- Significant unit economics and profitability improvement since its 2023 debt restructuring
- Distinctive brand and vending-machine delivery experience differentiating the customer experience
- Revenue tied to dealer marketing budgets, which can be cyclical
- Wholesale/CarOffer segment has been a source of margin volatility
- Competition from other listing platforms and direct-to-consumer retailers like Carvana
- Still carries a meaningful debt load from its restructuring history
- Capital-intensive model with real inventory and logistics risk versus asset-light marketplaces
- Used vehicle pricing and consumer credit cycles directly affect margins and demand
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on CARG and CVNA. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside CARG and CVNA, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.