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KMX
CarMax, Inc. · Consumer Discretionary / Auto Retail
$58.47
+12.20% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
CVNA
Carvana Co. · Consumer Discretionary / Auto Retail
$69.54
+10.63% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
KMX
1
CVNA
3
Comparison scoreboard
CVNA LEADS 3/5AI Score
KMX 26.0
CVNA ✓59.9
1Y Return
KMX -7.16%
CVNA ✓+0.46%
Fwd P/E
KMX ✓17.63
CVNA 35.32
Target Up.
KMX -4.08%
CVNA ✓+32.16%
Op. Margin
KMX 3.43%
CVNA N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 7/17/2026
Quick take
KMX vs CVNA: CarMax vs Carvana Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CarMax is the physical-and-digital omnichannel leader in US used car retail with the largest inventory, strongest financing arm, and deepest operational scale, while Carvana is the digital-native used car disruptor that nearly went bankrupt in 2022 but executed a remarkable turnaround through GPU improvement and debt restructuring. CarMax offers stability and financing income; Carvana offers high-growth digital disruption upside.
KMX vs CVNA is the established used car retail giant versus the digital disruptor in recovery mode — CarMax wins if omnichannel capabilities close the digital experience gap and financing arm compounds earnings; Carvana wins if digital-native GPU improvements and unit growth continue at scale while debt burden is managed.
Live analysis · updated 7/17/2026
CVNA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CVNA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+0.46% vs -7.16%), though KMX has the better forward P/E setup (17.63x vs 35.32x for CVNA). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CVNA (+32.16%) than for KMX (-4.08%).
Normalized 1Y performance
KMX
CVNA
Recent returns
KMX
CVNA
Analyst price targets & sentiment
KMX
Price target range
analyst mean$51.31
current price$58.47
-4.1% upside to analyst mean
CVNA · 21 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$67.00
analyst high$120.00
analyst mean$91.90
current price$69.54
+32.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
KMX may suit investors who:
- →want the most established, lowest-risk used car retail business with strong financing income
- →value CarMax's scale, inventory depth, and no-haggle brand reputation as durable competitive moats
- →prefer omnichannel flexibility over digital-only as the long-term winning model for used car retail
- →are comfortable with cyclical sensitivity to used car prices and interest rates in a more stable business
CVNA may suit investors who:
- →want high-growth digital retail disruption with dramatic GPU improvement as the core investment thesis
- →believe Carvana's all-digital model is structurally superior to CarMax's omnichannel approach
- →are comfortable with elevated debt levels and the risks of a turnaround recovery thesis
- →want higher leverage to used car market recovery and GPU expansion as key value drivers
Performance & AI score
| Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 26.0 | 59.9 |
| AI rank | #2667 | #207 |
| Latest close | $58.47 | $69.54 |
| 1M return | +12.20% | +10.63% |
| 6M return | +24.94% | -24.56% |
| 1Y return | -7.16% | +0.46% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $9.37K (-6.3%) started 2025-07-16 | $10.05K (+0.5%) started 2025-07-17 |
| 5Y ago | $4.55K (-54.5%) started 2021-07-19 | $11.18K (+11.8%) started 2021-07-19 |
| 10Y ago | $10.54K (+5.4%) started 2016-07-18 | $313.25K (+3032.5%) started 2017-04-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $7.59B | $76.27B |
| Trailing P/E | 33.22 | 40.43 |
| Forward P/E | 17.63 | 35.32 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 3.39 |
| EV/Revenue | 0.93 | 2.41 |
| Analyst target | $51.31 | $91.90 |
| Target upside | -4.08% | +32.16% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 5.50% | 52.00% |
| Earnings growth | -5.20% | 11.90% |
| EPS growth | -5.20% | +11.90% |
| FCF margin | -0.57% | +0.87% |
| Operating margin | 3.43% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 0.79% | 6.40% |
| ROIC proxy | 3.59% | 60.17% |
| Return on equity | 3.59% | 60.17% |
| Dividend yield | N/A | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.16 | 3.46 |
| Debt/equity | 307.79 | 121.35 |
| Current ratio | 2.71 | 4.09 |
| Quick ratio | 0.18 | 1.84 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
KMX max drawdown51.39%
CVNA max drawdown41.21%
KMX max wkly drop26.25%
CVNA max wkly drop15.25%
5Y risk snapshot
KMX max drawdown80.06%
CVNA max drawdown98.99%
KMX max wkly drop26.25%
CVNA max wkly drop51.83%
10Y risk snapshot
KMX max drawdown80.06%
CVNA max drawdown98.99%
KMX max wkly drop36.73%
CVNA max wkly drop51.83%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -6.28% | +0.46% |
| CAGR | -6.29% | +0.46% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.09 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdown | 51.39% | 41.21% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.33% | 14.17% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.25% | 15.25% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -54.52% | +11.79% |
| CAGR | -14.60% | +2.26% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.22 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.06% | 98.99% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.60% | 42.92% | |
| Max wkly drop | 26.25% | 51.83% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +5.41% | +3032.46% |
| CAGR | +0.53% | +45.30% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.11 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.06% | 98.99% | |
| Max daily drop | 24.60% | 42.92% | |
| Max wkly drop | 36.73% | 51.83% |
Business comparison
| Category | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CarMax, Inc. | Carvana Co. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Discretionary / Auto Retail |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | The largest US used car retailer by volume with 240+ physical superstores and an omnichannel model combining in-store and online purchasing. CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) provides financing to customers, contributing significant recurring earnings alongside the retail margin. | Online used car retailer that allows consumers to buy, sell, and finance used cars entirely digitally, with home delivery and iconic car vending machines. Carvana nearly went bankrupt in 2022-2023 but executed a dramatic debt restructuring and returned to profitability. |
| Investor focus | Comparable store unit sales, GPU (gross profit per unit), CarMax Auto Finance loan performance, and omnichannel adoption rate of online car purchases. | Retail units sold, GPU (gross profit per unit) improvement, EBITDA margin expansion, debt reduction timeline, and market share recapture in online used car sales. |
KMX strengths
- →CarMax is the undisputed scale leader in US used car retail with the largest inventory, sourcing network, and financing arm
- →CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) generates consistent, high-margin earnings and provides a competitive advantage through instant financing
- →No-haggle pricing and strong customer service reputation drive repeat and referral business at rates competitors struggle to match
CVNA strengths
- →Carvana's fully digital model with home delivery is the most consumer-friendly used car buying experience available
- →Dramatic GPU improvement from ~$800 in 2022 to $6,000+ demonstrates significant operational leverage in the digital model
- →Carvana's proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and logistics infrastructure is hard to replicate at comparable scale
Risks to watch — KMX
- →Used car unit volumes are highly sensitive to consumer confidence, vehicle affordability, and interest rates — all three headwinds in 2022-2024
- →Rising vehicle prices and elevated interest rates have significantly pressured unit sales and compressed affordability
- →Carvana's aggressive recovery challenges CarMax's omnichannel digital push
Risks to watch — CVNA
- →Carvana still carries very high debt from its near-bankruptcy restructuring — interest expense materially limits near-term free cash flow
- →Used car market demand remains sensitive to interest rates — Carvana's momentum could reverse if consumer credit tightens
- →Unit volume growth at Carvana's scale requires significant operational execution — inventory sourcing and logistics must scale efficiently
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