KMX vs CVNA: CarMax vs Carvana Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CarMax is the physical-and-digital omnichannel leader in US used car retail with the largest inventory, strongest financing arm, and deepest operational scale, while Carvana is the digital-native used car disruptor that nearly went bankrupt in 2022 but executed a remarkable turnaround through GPU improvement and debt restructuring. CarMax offers stability and financing income; Carvana offers high-growth digital disruption upside.
KMX vs CVNA is the established used car retail giant versus the digital disruptor in recovery mode — CarMax wins if omnichannel capabilities close the digital experience gap and financing arm compounds earnings; Carvana wins if digital-native GPU improvements and unit growth continue at scale while debt burden is managed.
CVNA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KMX leads on both 1-year return (+18.46%) and forward P/E quality (20.25x vs 33.20x for CVNA), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CVNA leads on both revenue growth (52.40%) and operating margin (9.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CVNA (+10.49%) than for KMX (-11.70%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the most established, lowest-risk used car retail business with strong financing income
- value CarMax's scale, inventory depth, and no-haggle brand reputation as durable competitive moats
- prefer omnichannel flexibility over digital-only as the long-term winning model for used car retail
- are comfortable with cyclical sensitivity to used car prices and interest rates in a more stable business
- want high-growth digital retail disruption with dramatic GPU improvement as the core investment thesis
- believe Carvana's all-digital model is structurally superior to CarMax's omnichannel approach
- are comfortable with elevated debt levels and the risks of a turnaround recovery thesis
- want higher leverage to used car market recovery and GPU expansion as key value drivers
| Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 36.4 | 46.3 |
| AI ranki | #1499 | #349 |
| Latest closei | $52.62 | $60.62 |
| 1M returni | -12.09% | -9.39% |
| 3M returni | -10.01% | -14.21% |
| 6M returni | +29.96% | -83.27% |
| 1Y returni | +18.46% | -82.94% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.16K (+21.6%) started 2025-10-16 | $1.76K (-82.4%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $3.83K (-61.7%) started 2021-10-18 | $2.1K (-79.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $10.3K (+3.0%) started 2016-10-17 | $54.61K (+446.1%) started 2017-04-28 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $8.81B | $83.25B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 38.58 | 39.74 |
| Forward P/Ei | 20.25 | 33.20 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.98 | 2.22 |
| Analyst targeti | $54.85 | $82.98 |
| Target upsidei | -11.70% | +10.49% |
| Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.50% | 52.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -5.20% | 61.50% |
| EPS growthi | -5.20% | +61.50% |
| FCF margini | -0.57% | +1.69% |
| Operating margini | 3.43% | 9.22% |
| Profit margini | 0.79% | 6.26% |
| ROIC proxyi | 3.59% | 58.77% |
| Return on equityi | 3.59% | 58.77% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.16 | 3.49 |
| Debt/equityi | 307.79 | 110.88 |
| Current ratioi | 2.71 | 3.93 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.18 | 1.72 |
Over the past year, KMX and CVNA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.20), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +21.61% | -82.41% |
| CAGRi | +21.65% | -82.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.80% | 101.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | -0.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.73 | -0.83 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.50% | 87.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.06% | 87.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.05% | 47.16% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.69% | 59.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.33% | 80.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.25% | 82.62% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -61.74% | -79.02% |
| CAGRi | -17.50% | -26.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.84% | 117.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.30 | 0.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.39 | 0.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.06% | 98.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.02% | 87.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 52.40% | 57.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 54.46% | 67.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.60% | 80.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.25% | 82.62% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2.95% | +446.13% |
| CAGRi | +0.29% | +19.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.95% | 101.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.11 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.14 | 1.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.06% | 98.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.02% | 87.33% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.04% | 40.43% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.60% | 53.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.60% | 80.52% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.73% | 82.62% |
| Category | KMX | CVNA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CarMax, Inc. | Carvana Co. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Auto & Truck Dealerships | Auto & Truck Dealerships |
| Core business | The largest US used car retailer by volume with 240+ physical superstores and an omnichannel model combining in-store and online purchasing. CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) provides financing to customers, contributing significant recurring earnings alongside the retail margin. | Online used car retailer that allows consumers to buy, sell, and finance used cars entirely digitally, with home delivery and iconic car vending machines. Carvana nearly went bankrupt in 2022-2023 but executed a dramatic debt restructuring and returned to profitability. |
| Investor focus | Comparable store unit sales, GPU (gross profit per unit), CarMax Auto Finance loan performance, and omnichannel adoption rate of online car purchases. | Retail units sold, GPU (gross profit per unit) improvement, EBITDA margin expansion, debt reduction timeline, and market share recapture in online used car sales. |
- CarMax is the undisputed scale leader in US used car retail with the largest inventory, sourcing network, and financing arm
- CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) generates consistent, high-margin earnings and provides a competitive advantage through instant financing
- No-haggle pricing and strong customer service reputation drive repeat and referral business at rates competitors struggle to match
- Carvana's fully digital model with home delivery is the most consumer-friendly used car buying experience available
- Dramatic GPU improvement from ~$800 in 2022 to $6,000+ demonstrates significant operational leverage in the digital model
- Carvana's proprietary inspection, reconditioning, and logistics infrastructure is hard to replicate at comparable scale
- Used car unit volumes are highly sensitive to consumer confidence, vehicle affordability, and interest rates — all three headwinds in 2022-2024
- Rising vehicle prices and elevated interest rates have significantly pressured unit sales and compressed affordability
- Carvana's aggressive recovery challenges CarMax's omnichannel digital push
- Carvana still carries very high debt from its near-bankruptcy restructuring — interest expense materially limits near-term free cash flow
- Used car market demand remains sensitive to interest rates — Carvana's momentum could reverse if consumer credit tightens
- Unit volume growth at Carvana's scale requires significant operational execution — inventory sourcing and logistics must scale efficiently
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