CMG vs QSR Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CMG and QSR represent the two dominant restaurant business models. Chipotle owns its restaurants, which means it keeps all the profit and bears all the cost inflation, producing higher growth and higher operating leverage in both directions. Restaurant Brands franchises its brands, collecting royalties with very little capital employed, which supports a large dividend but ties results to franchisee health and brand performance.
Use this CMG vs QSR comparison to decide whether you want operating leverage or royalty stability. Chipotle's earnings respond directly to traffic, pricing, and cost inflation at the restaurant level. Restaurant Brands earns a percentage of system sales, which is smoother and capital-light, but caps upside and makes franchisee economics the thing to monitor.
QSR holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. QSR leads on both 1-year return (+11.09%) and forward P/E quality (17.80x vs 27.78x for CMG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CMG is growing revenue faster (9.30%), while QSR maintains the higher operating margin (27.74%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CMG (+14.84%) than for QSR (+8.93%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want growth from new restaurant openings and comparable sales rather than income
- Prefer capturing full restaurant profits over collecting royalties
- Value direct operational control and consistency
- Accept exposure to labour and food cost inflation and a premium multiple
- Want a capital-light franchise royalty model with a substantial dividend
- Value diversification across several brands and many countries
- Prefer steadier, more predictable cash flow to unit growth leverage
- Accept dependence on franchisee health and slower brand turnarounds
| Metric | CMG | QSR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.2 | 41.6 |
| AI ranki | #420 | #922 |
| Latest closei | $31.33 | $71.64 |
| 1M returni | -16.10% | -9.61% |
| 6M returni | +1.52% | +0.31% |
| 1Y returni | -20.78% | +11.09% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CMG | QSR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.97K (-20.3%) started 2025-09-25 | $11.1K (+11.0%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $8.25K (-17.5%) started 2021-09-27 | $11.36K (+13.6%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $37.31K (+273.1%) started 2016-09-26 | $16.04K (+60.4%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CMG | QSR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $48.12B | $36.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 35.21 | 19.82 |
| Forward P/Ei | 27.78 | 17.80 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.25 | 4.47 |
| Analyst targeti | $43.67 | $85.92 |
| Target upsidei | +14.84% | +8.93% |
| Metric | CMG | QSR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.30% | 4.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -1.30% | 151.20% |
| EPS growthi | -1.30% | +151.20% |
| FCF margini | +8.99% | +17.67% |
| Operating margini | 16.11% | 27.74% |
| Profit margini | 11.43% | 13.13% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.56% | 34.79% |
| Return on equityi | 49.56% | 34.79% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 3.32% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 63.82% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.94 | 0.53 |
| Debt/equityi | 246.35 | 290.10 |
| Current ratioi | 0.71 | 1.01 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.59 | 0.81 |
Over the past year, CMG and QSR have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.28), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CMG | QSR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -20.34% | +10.97% |
| CAGRi | -20.37% | +10.98% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.34% | 24.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.43 | 0.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.56 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 33.47% | 13.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.04% | 12.28% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.66% | 5.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.50% | 6.30% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 6.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 8.02% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -17.53% | +13.55% |
| CAGRi | -3.79% | +2.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.89% | 23.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.06 | 0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.09 | 0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 27.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.30% | 13.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.94% | 11.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.45% | 13.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 6.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.26% | 10.76% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +273.08% | +60.41% |
| CAGRi | +14.08% | +4.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.21% | 27.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | 0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.89% | 64.00% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.30% | 13.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.75% | 15.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.01% | 18.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.18% | 22.07% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.03% | 40.90% |
| Category | CMG | QSR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Restaurant Brands International Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Fast-casual Mexican chain that owns and operates its restaurants rather than franchising them in its core market, growing through new openings, digital ordering, throughput gains, and pricing. | Global franchisor of several quick-service brands including Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs. Revenue comes largely from franchise royalties and system sales rather than from operating restaurants itself. |
| Investor focus | Comparable sales and transactions, restaurant-level margin, unit opening pace and returns, and input cost inflation. | System-wide sales growth by brand, international unit expansion, franchisee health and remodel programmes, and free cash flow supporting the dividend. |
- Owning restaurants captures the entire profit stream rather than a franchise royalty
- Very high average unit volumes and strong restaurant-level margins
- Direct operational control supports consistency and faster rollout of changes
- Franchise royalty model produces high-margin, capital-light, recurring revenue
- Multiple brands and a large international footprint diversify demand
- Supports a substantial dividend, funded by predictable royalty cash flow
- Owning restaurants means bearing all labour, food, and occupancy cost inflation directly
- Premium valuation is unforgiving of comparable sales disappointments
- Pays little or no dividend, returning cash mainly through buybacks
- Depends on franchisee profitability and willingness to invest in remodels and new units
- Brand turnarounds, particularly in the domestic burger business, have been slow and costly
- Carries meaningful leverage relative to a company-operated peer
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