DECK vs NKE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Deckers Brands and Nike both compete in athletic and lifestyle footwear, but Deckers operates a more focused, two-brand portfolio anchored by the fast-growing HOKA running brand and the resilient UGG lifestyle brand, while Nike is the dominant global athletic footwear giant with a far broader brand and product portfolio.
Deckers offers concentrated exposure to HOKA's rapid market share gains in performance running alongside UGG's resilient cash flow, while Nike offers dominant global scale and brand diversification with a growing direct-to-consumer channel. Consider whether you prefer Deckers' focused, high-growth brand portfolio or Nike's diversified global scale.
DECK holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DECK leads on both 1-year return (-32.05%) and forward P/E quality (10.05x vs 17.28x for NKE), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. DECK leads on both revenue growth (5.70%) and operating margin (15.23%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DECK (+46.07%) than for NKE (+27.57%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want concentrated exposure to HOKA's rapid market share gains in the performance running footwear category
- Value UGG's resilient, high-margin lifestyle brand cash flow alongside HOKA's growth
- Are comfortable with a more concentrated two-brand portfolio than Nike's broader diversification
- Value Deckers' high direct-to-consumer sales mix and associated gross margin strength
- Want exposure to the world's dominant, most diversified athletic footwear and apparel brand
- Value Nike's growing direct-to-consumer channel and its ability to capture more margin and customer data
- Prefer broader brand and product diversification over a more concentrated portfolio
- Believe Nike's scale and marketing capabilities will help it defend share against emerging competitors like HOKA
| Metric | DECK | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.6 | 27.5 |
| AI ranki | #325 | #2435 |
| Latest closei | $78.43 | $35.51 |
| 1M returni | -14.35% | -13.50% |
| 6M returni | -25.24% | -33.55% |
| 1Y returni | -32.05% | -50.75% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | DECK | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.79K (-32.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $4.93K (-50.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $11.05K (+10.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $2.53K (-74.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $76.97K (+669.7%) started 2016-09-19 | $7.95K (-20.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | DECK | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $11.45B | $58.75B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.96 | 18.86 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.05 | 17.28 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.94 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.88 | 1.31 |
| Analyst targeti | $122.81 | $50.52 |
| Target upsidei | +46.07% | +27.57% |
| Metric | DECK | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.70% | -1.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 1.10% | 428.00% |
| EPS growthi | +1.10% | +428.00% |
| FCF margini | +15.77% | +4.07% |
| Operating margini | 15.23% | 12.69% |
| Profit margini | 18.36% | 6.70% |
| ROIC proxyi | 42.56% | 22.14% |
| Return on equityi | 42.56% | 22.14% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 4.27% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 77.62% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| Debt/equityi | 20.52 | 74.29 |
| Current ratioi | 2.75 | 1.96 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.87 | 1.19 |
Over the past year, DECK and NKE have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | DECK | NKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -32.05% | -50.75% |
| CAGRi | -32.07% | -50.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.99% | 36.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.74 | -1.89 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.07 | -2.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.91% | 52.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.15% | 52.38% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.43% | 27.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.52% | 31.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.21% | 15.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.11% | 18.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +10.48% | -75.86% |
| CAGRi | +2.02% | -24.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 44.46% | 35.79% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.17 | -0.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.24 | -0.99 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.26% | 79.02% | |
| Current drawdowni | 64.85% | 79.02% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.91% | 45.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.64% | 49.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.51% | 19.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.82% | 22.44% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +669.68% | -28.50% |
| CAGRi | +22.65% | -3.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.65% | 32.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | -0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.86 | -0.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.26% | 79.02% | |
| Current drawdowni | 64.85% | 79.02% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.69% | 25.74% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.97% | 35.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.51% | 19.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.56% | 22.44% |
| Category | DECK | NKE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Deckers Brands (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) | Nike, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Footwear & Accessories | Footwear & Accessories |
| Core business | A footwear and apparel company that owns a focused portfolio of brands, most notably the fast-growing HOKA performance running brand and the resilient UGG lifestyle brand, with a strong direct-to-consumer sales mix. | The world's largest athletic footwear and apparel brand, designing, marketing, and selling products globally through both wholesale partners and an increasingly important direct-to-consumer (DTC) digital and retail channel. |
| Investor focus | HOKA brand revenue growth and market share gains in performance running, UGG brand resilience and seasonality, and direct-to-consumer channel mix. | Direct-to-consumer digital sales growth, wholesale channel relationships, global brand strength, and gross margin trends. |
- HOKA has rapidly gained market share in the performance running footwear category, becoming a major growth driver
- UGG remains a resilient, high-margin lifestyle brand with a durable customer base despite its maturity
- High direct-to-consumer sales mix captures strong gross margins relative to more wholesale-dependent competitors
- Dominant global brand recognition and market leadership position in athletic footwear and apparel
- Growing direct-to-consumer channel captures more margin and customer data than wholesale distribution
- Strong innovation pipeline and marketing capabilities reinforcing premium brand positioning
- Portfolio is concentrated in two main brands, creating more dependency on their continued success than Nike's broader portfolio
- UGG's seasonal footwear category creates concentrated revenue timing around cooler-weather months
- HOKA faces increasing competition as more athletic brands enter the growing performance running category
- Shifting more sales toward its own DTC channel has created near-term friction with wholesale partners
- Facing increased competition from both established and emerging athletic and lifestyle footwear brands, including HOKA
- China market performance and consumer sentiment can be a swing factor in overall growth
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