F vs RIVN: Ford vs Rivian Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ford is a legacy automaker with a highly profitable commercial vehicle and ICE business funding significant EV losses, while Rivian is a pure-play EV truck and van company with the Amazon partnership as its commercial anchor and R2 as its lower-cost future platform. Ford has scale and profitability; Rivian has EV purity and better truck-specific brand loyalty.
F vs RIVN is a profitable legacy automaker absorbing EV development losses versus a pure-play EV truck maker burning cash toward its R2 lower-cost platform — Ford wins if EV losses are contained and Ford Pro sustains profitability; Rivian wins if R2 reduces manufacturing costs and production scales toward gross margin breakeven.
F holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. RIVN has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+17.82% vs +16.54%), though F has the better forward P/E setup (7.53x vs -8.99x for RIVN). On fundamentals, RIVN is growing revenue faster (27.20%), while F maintains the higher operating margin (1.88%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RIVN (+19.67%) than for F (+9.13%).
- prefer exposure to auto earnings through Ford Pro's highly profitable commercial vehicle business
- value Ford's dividend income funded by ICE and hybrid profits during the EV transition
- believe Ford's scale allows it to absorb EV losses while Rivian's cash requirements are existential
- prefer a lower-risk auto investment vs Rivian's pre-profitability EV company execution risk
- want a pure-play EV truck and van company with the Amazon commercial partnership as a demand floor
- believe Rivian's R1 brand loyalty and R2 cost reduction will eventually sustain profitable EV manufacturing
- value Volkswagen partnership as validation and capital that reduces Rivian's near-term cash risk
- are comfortable with pre-profitability EV investing in exchange for pure-play EV truck platform upside
| Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 41.3 | 23.9 |
| AI rank | #927 | #3396 |
| Latest close | $13.88 | $16.07 |
| 1M return | -9.16% | -1.59% |
| 6M return | -3.68% | +2.95% |
| 1Y return | +16.54% | +17.82% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.85K (+18.5%) started 2025-08-28 | $11.78K (+17.8%) started 2025-08-28 |
| 5Y ago | $18.08K (+80.8%) started 2021-08-30 | $1.6K (-84.0%) started 2021-11-10 |
| 10Y ago | $32.05K (+220.5%) started 2016-08-29 | $1.6K (-84.0%) started 2021-11-10 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $57.46B | $23.27B |
| Trailing P/E | 11.79 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 7.53 | -8.99 |
| Price/Sales | N/A | 3.95 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.06 | 3.97 |
| Analyst target | $15.73 | $19.23 |
| Target upside | +9.13% | +19.67% |
| Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -3.80% | 27.20% |
| Earnings growth | 430.80% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +430.80% | N/A |
| FCF margin | -4.22% | -26.17% |
| Operating margin | 1.88% | -50.42% |
| Profit margin | -3.94% | -54.95% |
| ROIC proxy | -18.25% | -57.52% |
| Return on equity | -18.25% | -57.52% |
| Dividend yield | 4.16% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.85 | 1.61 |
| Debt/equity | 456.71 | 104.41 |
| Current ratio | 1.09 | 2.10 |
| Quick ratio | 0.88 | 1.57 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +18.53% | +17.82% |
| CAGR | +18.56% | +17.83% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.52 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdown | 23.39% | 42.54% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.46% | 18.12% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.56% | 19.21% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +36.74% | -84.05% |
| CAGR | +6.46% | -31.80% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.24 | -0.17 | |
| Max drawdown | 56.51% | 95.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.36% | 25.60% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.30% | 39.27% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +77.85% | -84.05% |
| CAGR | +5.93% | -31.80% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.22 | -0.17 | |
| Max drawdown | 64.77% | 95.12% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.36% | 25.60% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.73% | 39.27% |
| Category | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ford Motor Company | Rivian Automotive, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Discretionary |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Legacy automaker with ICE, hybrid, and EV vehicles. Ford's Pro commercial vehicle business (F-Series Super Duty, Transit vans) is highly profitable. Ford+ EV strategy includes F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E, though EV losses have been significant. | Electric truck and van manufacturer with the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and EDV delivery van for Amazon. Rivian is designing and building a second-generation lower-cost R2 platform in its Illinois factory and a new Georgia factory. |
| Investor focus | Ford Pro commercial vehicle profitability, EV segment loss reduction toward profitability, F-150 Lightning volume and pricing, and hybrid vehicle growth. | Production volume growth, gross margin improvement toward positive, R2 launch and cost structure, Amazon commercial van ramp, and capital consumption. |
- Ford Pro (commercial vans and trucks) is an extraordinarily profitable business with strong recurring revenue from software and services on commercial fleets
- F-Series pickup trucks are the most popular vehicles in the US — a massive brand advantage in the most profitable vehicle segment
- Ford's scale allows it to fund EV development through its ICE and hybrid profits while pure-play EV companies must raise capital
- Amazon partnership for 100,000 EDV delivery vans provides Rivian with a large, committed commercial customer that is volume-predictable
- R1T and R1S have strong brand loyalty among early EV truck buyers who appreciate Rivian's adventure-oriented identity
- R2 and R3 platforms promise to bring Rivian's EV technology to a lower price point with significantly better manufacturing economics
- Ford EV segment (Model e) has generated billions in losses — the path to profitability in EVs requires significant cost reduction
- F-150 Lightning production costs remain high, making EV truck economics difficult relative to ICE F-150 margins
- United Auto Workers (UAW) labor cost is structurally higher than non-union EV competitors
- Rivian has burned through billions in cash since IPO — R2 manufacturing ramp requires continued capital raises or partner investment
- Volkswagen's $5B partnership provides capital but adds strategic complexity
- Gross margin improvement has been slower than guided — each production cost reduction is hard-won
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