F vs RIVN: Ford vs Rivian Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Ford is a legacy automaker with a highly profitable commercial vehicle and ICE business funding significant EV losses, while Rivian is a pure-play EV truck and van company with the Amazon partnership as its commercial anchor and R2 as its lower-cost future platform. Ford has scale and profitability; Rivian has EV purity and better truck-specific brand loyalty.
F vs RIVN is a profitable legacy automaker absorbing EV development losses versus a pure-play EV truck maker burning cash toward its R2 lower-cost platform — Ford wins if EV losses are contained and Ford Pro sustains profitability; Rivian wins if R2 reduces manufacturing costs and production scales toward gross margin breakeven.
F holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. F leads on both 1-year return (+4.68%) and forward P/E quality (7.25x vs -8.74x for RIVN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, RIVN is growing revenue faster (27.20%), while F maintains the higher operating margin (1.88%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for RIVN (+23.20%) than for F (+13.30%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer exposure to auto earnings through Ford Pro's highly profitable commercial vehicle business
- value Ford's dividend income funded by ICE and hybrid profits during the EV transition
- believe Ford's scale allows it to absorb EV losses while Rivian's cash requirements are existential
- prefer a lower-risk auto investment vs Rivian's pre-profitability EV company execution risk
- want a pure-play EV truck and van company with the Amazon commercial partnership as a demand floor
- believe Rivian's R1 brand loyalty and R2 cost reduction will eventually sustain profitable EV manufacturing
- value Volkswagen partnership as validation and capital that reduces Rivian's near-term cash risk
- are comfortable with pre-profitability EV investing in exchange for pure-play EV truck platform upside
| Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.3 | 23.6 |
| AI ranki | #942 | #3379 |
| Latest closei | $12.31 | $13.02 |
| 1M returni | -8.81% | -16.22% |
| 3M returni | -13.25% | -23.82% |
| 6M returni | -1.05% | -22.91% |
| 1Y returni | +4.68% | -2.91% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.49K (+4.9%) started 2025-10-16 | $10.09K (+0.9%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $13.45K (+34.5%) started 2021-10-18 | $1.29K (-87.1%) started 2021-11-10 |
| 10Y ago | $29.84K (+198.4%) started 2016-10-17 | $1.29K (-87.1%) started 2021-11-10 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $55.35B | $22.6B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.79 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 7.25 | -8.74 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.05 | 3.83 |
| Analyst targeti | $15.73 | $19.23 |
| Target upsidei | +13.30% | +23.20% |
| Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -3.80% | 27.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 430.80% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +430.80% | N/A |
| FCF margini | -4.22% | -26.17% |
| Operating margini | 1.88% | -50.42% |
| Profit margini | -3.94% | -54.95% |
| ROIC proxyi | -18.25% | -57.52% |
| Return on equityi | -18.25% | -57.52% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.32% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 64.10% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.85 | 1.61 |
| Debt/equityi | 456.71 | 104.41 |
| Current ratioi | 1.09 | 2.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.88 | 1.57 |
Over the past year, F and RIVN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +4.86% | +0.85% |
| CAGRi | +4.86% | +0.85% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.16% | 70.10% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.32 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.19% | 42.54% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.42% | 42.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.81% | 24.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.45% | 27.07% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.46% | 18.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.56% | 19.21% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +1.71% | -87.07% |
| CAGRi | +0.34% | -33.96% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.20% | 76.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.09 | -0.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.13 | -0.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.51% | 95.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.49% | 92.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 40.13% | 86.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 41.82% | 87.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.36% | 25.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.30% | 39.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +65.57% | -87.07% |
| CAGRi | +5.17% | -33.96% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.54% | 76.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.20 | -0.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.29 | -0.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.77% | 95.12% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.49% | 92.43% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.48% | 86.64% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.85% | 87.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.36% | 25.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.73% | 39.27% |
| Category | F | RIVN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Ford Motor Company | Rivian Automotive, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Auto Manufacturers | Auto Manufacturers |
| Core business | Legacy automaker with ICE, hybrid, and EV vehicles. Ford's Pro commercial vehicle business (F-Series Super Duty, Transit vans) is highly profitable. Ford+ EV strategy includes F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E, though EV losses have been significant. | Electric truck and van manufacturer with the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and EDV delivery van for Amazon. Rivian is designing and building a second-generation lower-cost R2 platform in its Illinois factory and a new Georgia factory. |
| Investor focus | Ford Pro commercial vehicle profitability, EV segment loss reduction toward profitability, F-150 Lightning volume and pricing, and hybrid vehicle growth. | Production volume growth, gross margin improvement toward positive, R2 launch and cost structure, Amazon commercial van ramp, and capital consumption. |
- Ford Pro (commercial vans and trucks) is an extraordinarily profitable business with strong recurring revenue from software and services on commercial fleets
- F-Series pickup trucks are the most popular vehicles in the US — a massive brand advantage in the most profitable vehicle segment
- Ford's scale allows it to fund EV development through its ICE and hybrid profits while pure-play EV companies must raise capital
- Amazon partnership for 100,000 EDV delivery vans provides Rivian with a large, committed commercial customer that is volume-predictable
- R1T and R1S have strong brand loyalty among early EV truck buyers who appreciate Rivian's adventure-oriented identity
- R2 and R3 platforms promise to bring Rivian's EV technology to a lower price point with significantly better manufacturing economics
- Ford EV segment (Model e) has generated billions in losses — the path to profitability in EVs requires significant cost reduction
- F-150 Lightning production costs remain high, making EV truck economics difficult relative to ICE F-150 margins
- United Auto Workers (UAW) labor cost is structurally higher than non-union EV competitors
- Rivian has burned through billions in cash since IPO — R2 manufacturing ramp requires continued capital raises or partner investment
- Volkswagen's $5B partnership provides capital but adds strategic complexity
- Gross margin improvement has been slower than guided — each production cost reduction is hard-won
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