GIS vs KDP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GIS and KDP are both mid-sized US consumer staples with distinct issues. General Mills leads mature packaged food categories where volumes have been weak and private label is pressing, with pet food as its better-growing segment. Keurig Dr Pepper pairs share-gaining soft drink brands with a coffee systems business whose recurring pod revenue is attractive but whose growth has slowed.
Use this GIS vs KDP comparison to separate brand strength from category growth. General Mills' brands are strong in categories that are barely growing, which puts the burden on pricing and acquisitions. Keurig Dr Pepper has genuine momentum in refreshment beverages, with the coffee half of the business needing to stabilise for the whole to work.
KDP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KDP leads on both 1-year return (+21.71%) and forward P/E quality (12.21x vs 12.94x for GIS), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, KDP is growing revenue faster (75.60%), while GIS maintains the higher operating margin (19.19%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for KDP (+16.94%) than for GIS (-9.61%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want established packaged food brands and dependable cash flow
- Value pet food as a faster-growing part of the portfolio
- Prefer a substantial, well-covered dividend
- Accept weak centre-store volumes and private label competition
- Want soft drink brands that have been gaining share
- Value recurring pod revenue from the installed brewer base
- Like added energy drink exposure through distribution deals
- Accept coffee systems growth challenges and merger-related debt
| Metric | GIS | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 26.8 | 45.8 |
| AI ranki | #2437 | #680 |
| Latest closei | $33.64 | $31.95 |
| 1M returni | -16.07% | -0.79% |
| 6M returni | -7.71% | +21.81% |
| 1Y returni | -34.18% | +21.71% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GIS | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.81K (-31.9%) started 2025-09-25 | $12.41K (+24.1%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $7.26K (-27.4%) started 2021-09-27 | $11.32K (+13.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $10.2K (+2.0%) started 2016-09-26 | $263.67K (+2536.7%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GIS | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $22.21B | $42.13B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 8.80 | 31.27 |
| Forward P/Ei | 12.94 | 12.21 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 2.87 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.38 | 4.12 |
| Analyst targeti | $37.56 | $36.21 |
| Target upsidei | -9.61% | +16.94% |
| Metric | GIS | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.20% | 75.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -14.50% | -90.00% |
| EPS growthi | -14.50% | -90.00% |
| FCF margini | +12.53% | +22.93% |
| Operating margini | 19.19% | 12.89% |
| Profit margini | -0.47% | 7.10% |
| ROIC proxyi | -1.03% | 5.10% |
| Return on equityi | -1.03% | 5.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | 5.87% | 2.97% |
| Payout ratioi | 59.41% | 92.93% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | -0.05 | 0.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 217.63 | 99.65 |
| Current ratioi | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.35 | 0.20 |
Over the past year, GIS and KDP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.42), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GIS | KDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -31.94% | +24.08% |
| CAGRi | -31.98% | +24.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.24% | 26.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.39 | 0.77 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.84 | 1.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.83% | 18.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.95% | 4.63% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.57% | 6.11% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.48% | 7.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.99% | 5.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.38% | 8.86% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -36.24% | +2.88% |
| CAGRi | -8.61% | +0.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.33% | 21.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.49 | -0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.67 | -0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.80% | 32.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 60.06% | 14.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.61% | 13.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 29.92% | 15.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.32% | 11.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.38% | 17.71% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -28.55% | +166.36% |
| CAGRi | -3.31% | +10.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.67% | 24.25% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.23 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.32 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.80% | 36.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 60.06% | 14.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.37% | 9.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.38% | 12.07% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.41% | 16.49% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.17% | 19.84% |
| Category | GIS | KDP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | General Mills, Inc. | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Packaged Foods | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic |
| Core business | Packaged food company spanning cereal, snack bars, baking products, refrigerated dough, meals, and a substantial pet food business built around premium brands. | Beverage company combining a refreshment portfolio including Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, and Snapple with a coffee systems business selling Keurig brewers and single-serve pods, plus distribution arrangements for energy drink brands. |
| Investor focus | North American retail volume trends, private label share shifts, pet food growth, promotional intensity, and dividend coverage. | Refreshment beverage volume and share gains, coffee systems household penetration and pod volumes, energy drink distribution contribution, and leverage reduction. |
- Portfolio of long-established category-leading brands with shelf space advantages
- Pet food provides exposure to a category with better long-term growth than centre-store groceries
- Reliable cash generation supporting a substantial dividend
- Refreshment beverage brands have taken share in carbonated soft drinks
- Coffee systems create a razor-and-blade model where brewers drive recurring pod sales
- Distribution agreements add growing energy drink exposure without brand development cost
- Centre-store packaged food volumes have been weak as shoppers trade down after years of price increases
- Private label competition is strongest in exactly the categories it leads
- Growth depends heavily on acquisitions rather than organic category expansion
- Single-serve coffee has faced slowing household adoption and competition from cheaper compatible pods
- Carries meaningful debt from the merger that created the company and subsequent deals
- Coffee commodity costs affect the pod business margin
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