TSLA vs TM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TSLA vs TM contrasts a high-growth, high-volatility bet on autonomous driving and robotics against the steady global scale of the world's largest automaker. Tesla offers exposure to Robotaxi and Optimus optionality alongside a pure electric vehicle business, while Toyota offers diversified powertrain exposure and proven manufacturing scale with a more traditional automotive earnings profile.
Tesla suits investors who believe the company's future is increasingly about autonomous Robotaxi services and humanoid robotics rather than just vehicle sales, and who can tolerate significant valuation and margin volatility along the way. Toyota suits investors who want lower-volatility exposure to global auto demand through a diversified hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and EV strategy, backed by decades of manufacturing scale and reliability.
TSLA and TM are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. TSLA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+5.98% vs -0.27% for TM). On fundamentals, TSLA is growing revenue faster (25.50%), while TM maintains the higher operating margin (7.86%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TM (+17.49%) than for TSLA (+11.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe Robotaxi and Optimus robotics represent Tesla's next major growth driver beyond vehicle sales
- Can tolerate significant share price volatility and compressed near-term vehicle margins
- Want concentrated exposure to autonomous driving technology rather than a diversified automaker
- Are comfortable with Tesla's high valuation pricing in future, unproven business lines
- Prefer proven global manufacturing scale over a bet on unproven future technology
- Want diversified exposure across gasoline, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric powertrains
- Value a more traditional, lower-volatility automotive earnings profile
- Are cautious about paying a premium valuation for still-unproven robotaxi and robotics businesses
| Metric | TSLA | TM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 70.8 | 41.3 |
| AI ranki | #35 | #934 |
| Latest closei | $354.08 | $197.11 |
| 1M returni | +10.12% | +6.04% |
| 6M returni | -12.69% | -11.00% |
| 1Y returni | +5.98% | -0.27% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSLA | TM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.46K (+4.6%) started 2025-09-04 | $9.97K (-0.3%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $14.11K (+41.1%) started 2021-09-07 | $13.61K (+36.1%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $261.85K (+2518.5%) started 2016-09-06 | $27.85K (+178.5%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSLA | TM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.38T | $233.41B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 322.92 | 8.91 |
| Forward P/Ei | 161.56 | N/A |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 0.00 |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.03 | 0.68 |
| Analyst targeti | $390.09 | $231.58 |
| Target upsidei | +11.85% | +17.49% |
| Metric | TSLA | TM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 25.50% | 10.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -3.00% | 86.90% |
| EPS growthi | -3.00% | +86.90% |
| FCF margini | +4.67% | -6.93% |
| Operating margini | 1.41% | 7.86% |
| Profit margini | 3.67% | 8.63% |
| ROIC proxyi | 4.67% | 12.40% |
| Return on equityi | 4.67% | 12.40% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 3.18% |
| Betai | 1.83 | 0.34 |
| Debt/equityi | 18.37 | 114.97 |
| Current ratioi | 1.94 | 1.17 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.35 | 0.95 |
Over the past year, TSLA and TM have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.27), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSLA | TM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +4.59% | -0.27% |
| CAGRi | +4.60% | -0.27% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.34% | 26.21% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | -0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.33 | -0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.10% | 32.94% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.72% | 20.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.00% | 12.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.94% | 16.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.52% | 5.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.24% | 11.45% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +41.08% | +21.21% |
| CAGRi | +7.14% | +3.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.85% | 27.09% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.50 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 36.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.72% | 20.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 33.77% | 19.53% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.99% | 22.06% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.43% | 7.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.20% | 13.96% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2518.55% | +110.05% |
| CAGRi | +38.64% | +7.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.55% | 23.68% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.16 | 0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 73.63% | 36.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 27.72% | 20.61% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.31% | 13.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.68% | 16.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.06% | 8.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 43.05% | 13.96% |
| Category | TSLA | TM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Tesla | Toyota |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Automotive |
| Industry | Auto Manufacturers | Auto Manufacturers |
| Core business | Tesla designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles alongside energy storage and solar products. Under CEO Elon Musk, the company has increasingly shifted its narrative and capital spending away from traditional vehicle sales growth and toward autonomous Robotaxi services and Optimus humanoid robots, with full-year 2026 capital expenditures guided to exceed $25 billion to support this pivot. Tesla posted record quarterly revenue in 2026, though vehicle operating margins have compressed as pricing competition and capex intensity increased. | Toyota is the world's largest automaker by sales volume, built on a diversified powertrain strategy that includes traditional gasoline vehicles, industry-leading hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and a growing lineup of fully electric models. This multi-pathway approach has allowed Toyota to capture demand across different markets and consumer preferences rather than betting exclusively on any single powertrain technology. |
| Investor focus | Robotaxi and AI Optionality | Global Scale + Powertrain Diversification |
- Record vehicle deliveries and revenue in 2026 demonstrate continued demand despite a more competitive EV landscape
- Robotaxi service has accumulated hundreds of thousands of unsupervised miles across multiple cities with no notable safety incidents reported
- Vertically integrated manufacturing, battery technology, and software give Tesla capabilities most automakers lack
- Largest global sales volume of any automaker, with manufacturing and supply chain scale advantages
- Hybrid technology leadership provides a profitable bridge for consumers not ready for fully electric vehicles
- Diversified powertrain strategy reduces dependence on any single technology winning out globally
- Vehicle operating margins have compressed significantly as EV price competition intensifies and capex ramps
- Robotaxi and Optimus robot programs remain unproven at commercial scale and represent a large share of the current valuation
- Heavy dependence on Elon Musk's leadership and public statements, which can drive significant stock volatility
- Slower to scale pure battery-electric vehicle offerings compared to EV-focused competitors
- Large legacy manufacturing footprint carries higher fixed costs than newer, more automated EV-focused plants
- Exposure to currency fluctuations given Toyota's large export business from Japan
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