HOG vs MODG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
HOG (Harley-Davidson) and MODG (Topgolf Callaway Brands) are both iconic American lifestyle brands with deeply loyal customer communities — Harley-Davidson's legendary motorcycle identity versus Topgolf Callaway's combination of golf equipment heritage and Topgolf entertainment innovation. Both face demographic evolution challenges: Harley must attract younger riders while Topgolf must prove its venue economics scale.
HOG vs MODG is the iconic American motorcycle lifestyle brand managing demographic aging and electric vehicle transition (Harley-Davidson's bar-and-shield tribal identity, heavy cruiser heritage, and LiveWire electric pivot — sustainable brand loyalty over decades but aging core customer risk) versus the golf equipment and entertainment hybrid expanding the sport's addressable market (Topgolf Callaway's venue innovation attracting non-golfers, Callaway equipment market position, and TravisMathew apparel lifestyle growth — capital-intensive venue expansion with high returns if Topgolf network effects materialize).
HOG and MODG are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Value Harley-Davidson's tribal brand identity as a durable competitive moat that generates pricing power and customer lifetime value impossible to replicate in the motorcycle market
- Believe international expansion (particularly India and Asia-Pacific) represents decades of unit growth as Harley's U.S. market matures
- See the Harley-Davidson dividend and share repurchase program as capital return consistency from a business generating reliable free cash flow from its financial services arm
- Believe Topgolf venues are transforming golf participation by making the sport accessible to non-golfers, and that an 85-venue network is still early in its global rollout
- See Callaway's golf equipment market share as a stable foundation cash-funding higher-growth Topgolf venue expansion without requiring dilutive equity issuance
- Value TravisMathew as a separately underappreciated high-growth lifestyle apparel brand contributing meaningful upside beyond the Callaway and Topgolf segments
| Metric | HOG | MODG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 24.5 | N/A |
| AI ranki | #3055 | N/A |
| Latest closei | $27.59 | N/A |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | HOG | MODG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.29K (+2.9%) started 2025-10-16 | N/A |
| 5Y ago | $7.36K (-26.4%) started 2021-10-18 | N/A |
| 10Y ago | $5.55K (-44.5%) started 2016-10-17 | N/A |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | HOG | MODG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.8B | N/A |
| Trailing P/Ei | 14.78 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.44 | N/A |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 0.64 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.91 | N/A |
| Analyst targeti | $27.90 | N/A |
| Target upsidei | +3.72% | N/A |
| Metric | HOG | MODG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -5.90% | N/A |
| Earnings growthi | -15.00% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -15.00% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +2.60% | N/A |
| Operating margini | 5.63% | N/A |
| Profit margini | 4.78% | N/A |
| ROIC proxyi | 6.09% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 6.09% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.79% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 40.38% | N/A |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.32 | 0.05 |
| Debt/equityi | 74.04 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.90 | N/A |
| Quick ratioi | 1.59 | N/A |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | HOG | MODG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +2.95% | N/A |
| CAGRi | +2.95% | N/A | |
| Volatilityi | 38.29% | N/A | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.15 | N/A | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.22 | N/A | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.06% | N/A | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.02% | N/A | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.09% | N/A | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.14% | N/A | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.46% | N/A | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.11% | N/A | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -26.43% | N/A |
| CAGRi | -5.96% | N/A | |
| Volatilityi | 40.79% | N/A | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.06 | N/A | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.09 | N/A | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.76% | N/A | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.66% | N/A | |
| Avg drawdowni | 33.45% | N/A | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.89% | N/A | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.75% | N/A | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.68% | N/A | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -44.49% | N/A |
| CAGRi | -5.72% | N/A | |
| Volatilityi | 42.76% | N/A | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.03 | N/A | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | N/A | |
| Max drawdowni | 76.10% | N/A | |
| Current drawdowni | 56.16% | N/A | |
| Avg drawdowni | 41.49% | N/A | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 44.34% | N/A | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.16% | N/A | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.62% | N/A |
| Category | HOG | MODG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Harley-Davidson, Inc. | Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Discretionary - Golf Equipment & Entertainment |
| Industry | Recreational Vehicles | N/A |
| Core business | Harley-Davidson is the iconic American motorcycle manufacturer known for heavyweight cruiser and touring motorcycles that define American motorcycle culture. Harley-Davidson manufactures motorcycles (Softail, Touring, Sportster, and Adventure Touring categories), operates LiveWire (an electric motorcycle subsidiary), and provides financial services (Harley-Davidson Financial Services — motorcycle financing and insurance). Harley-Davidson sells through approximately 1,300 dealer locations in the U.S. and over 1,400 international dealers. The brand generates substantial licensing and merchandise revenue from its fiercely loyal customer base. | Topgolf Callaway Brands is a unique combination of golf equipment manufacturing and golf entertainment venues. The company has three segments: Golf Equipment (Callaway and Odyssey putters, Big Bertha woods and irons), Active Lifestyle (TravisMathew apparel, Jack Wolfskin outdoor apparel, Callaway Golf apparel), and Topgolf (entertainment golf venues with climate-controlled hitting bays, food and beverage, music — approximately 85 venues globally). Callaway merged with Topgolf in 2021 to create the combined entity. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Harley-Davidson's motorcycle shipments, U.S. and international mix, financial services profitability, LiveWire's electric motorcycle progress, and demographic evolution of the customer base (aging boomer riders and acquisition of younger riders). | Investors track Topgolf venue EBITDA per venue and new venue openings, golf equipment market share and margins, the TravisMathew apparel brand growth, and segment-level EBITDA from each business line. |
- One of the world's most powerful lifestyle brands — Harley-Davidson is not just a motorcycle; it is an identity; owners tattoo the bar-and-shield logo on their bodies; the H.O.G. (Harley Owners Group) is one of the largest brand loyalty organizations in the world; this tribal identity creates pricing power, licensing revenue, and customer lifetime value far beyond a typical durable goods manufacturer
- Financial services arm provides recurring income stream with attractive margin profile — Harley-Davidson Financial Services earns interest income on motorcycle loans originated at the point of dealer sale
- International growth opportunity as Harley's U.S. market matures — markets in India, Asia-Pacific, and Europe offer decades of brand expansion as motorcycle culture grows with rising middle class incomes
- Topgolf venues create a new occasion for golf participation not dependent on traditional golf skill — 75%+ of Topgolf visitors don't play traditional golf; the venues sell entertainment experiences (interactive bay games, food/beverage in a sports bar atmosphere) that dramatically expand the addressable market
- Callaway's equipment market leadership provides stable cash generation to fund Topgolf expansion — Callaway is among the top 2-3 golf equipment brands globally competing with TaylorMade and Titleist
- TravisMathew is a high-growth lifestyle apparel brand extending beyond golf — sold through department stores, its own retail stores, and online; the brand appeals to the golf lifestyle demographic but is not limited to golf occasions
- Core customer base is aging — the median age of Harley buyers is approximately 50+ years old; new younger rider acquisition is critical; younger riders prefer smaller, lighter, sport, or adventure motorcycles that Harley's historical heavyweight cruiser lineup doesn't traditionally address
- LiveWire electric motorcycle pivot faces steep technology investment costs and uncertain consumer adoption — LiveWire motorcycles are significantly more expensive than comparable ICE motorcycles; charging infrastructure for motorcycle touring remains sparse
- Heavy U.S. tariff exposure and retaliatory tariffs hurt international competitiveness — U.S.-assembled Harley motorcycles exported to Europe and India face tariffs; Harley opened manufacturing in India to reduce tariff burden
- Topgolf venue expansion requires substantial capital (approximately $30-50M per venue) and venues take time to reach mature EBITDA — new locations ramp over several years, reducing near-term free cash flow
- Golf equipment market is mature and weather-dependent — market share gains come at the expense of TaylorMade, Titleist, and Ping in a fixed-size market
- The combination of equipment, apparel, and entertainment makes valuation complex — investors must value three distinct business models simultaneously; the conglomerate discount may be applied
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on HOG and MODG. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside HOG and MODG, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.