KO vs MDLZ Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
KO and MDLZ are both global consumer staples, but their cost structures differ sharply. Coca-Cola sells concentrate, keeping capital needs low and input costs a modest share of value, with pricing power to match. Mondelez manufactures chocolate and biscuits, so commodity costs, cocoa above all, flow directly into margins and force pricing decisions that can cost volume.
Use this KO vs MDLZ comparison to think about where input costs sit in a business model. Coca-Cola's concentrate economics insulate it from most commodity swings. Mondelez's chocolate business is genuinely exposed to cocoa, which has been a major headwind, and how well it prices without losing shoppers is the central question for its margins.
KO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. KO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+32.14% vs -6.43%), though MDLZ has the better forward P/E setup (18.55x vs 25.43x for KO). KO leads on both revenue growth (6.70%) and operating margin (34.87%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for MDLZ (+10.86%) than for KO (+5.62%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want low capital intensity and durable pricing power in a global brand
- Value one of the market's longest dividend growth records
- Prefer input cost insulation from the concentrate model
- Accept slow developed market volumes and currency sensitivity
- Want snacking exposure with higher emerging market growth
- Believe cocoa costs will normalise and margins recover
- Value leading biscuit and chocolate brand positions
- Accept direct commodity cost exposure and pricing-versus-volume risk
| Metric | KO | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.7 | 41.0 |
| AI ranki | #385 | #993 |
| Latest closei | $87.81 | $60.25 |
| 1M returni | -2.52% | -4.38% |
| 6M returni | +15.98% | +3.40% |
| 1Y returni | +32.14% | -6.43% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | KO | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.31K (+33.1%) started 2025-09-25 | $9.63K (-3.7%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $20.33K (+103.3%) started 2021-09-27 | $12.21K (+22.1%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $37.16K (+271.6%) started 2016-09-26 | $21.27K (+112.7%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | KO | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $385.77B | $79.59B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 26.92 | 22.84 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.43 | 18.55 |
| Price/Salesi | 6.55 | 2.35 |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.29 | 2.52 |
| Analyst targeti | $94.70 | $69.13 |
| Target upsidei | +5.62% | +10.86% |
| Metric | KO | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.70% | 4.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 16.90% | 144.90% |
| EPS growthi | +16.90% | +144.90% |
| FCF margini | +10.41% | +5.68% |
| Operating margini | 34.87% | 21.98% |
| Profit margini | 28.56% | 8.86% |
| ROIC proxyi | 42.05% | 13.34% |
| Return on equityi | 42.05% | 13.34% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.36% | 3.34% |
| Payout ratioi | 62.46% | 73.26% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| Debt/equityi | 115.52 | 82.64 |
| Current ratioi | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.31 |
Over the past year, KO and MDLZ have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.58), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | KO | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +33.09% | -3.69% |
| CAGRi | +33.14% | -3.70% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.87% | 23.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.38 | -0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.29 | -0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 8.50% | 18.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.54% | 7.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 2.82% | 6.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 3.64% | 7.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.96% | 4.36% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.54% | 8.13% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +82.00% | +11.01% |
| CAGRi | +12.74% | +2.11% | |
| Volatilityi | 16.73% | 20.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.53 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.78 | -0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.27% | 30.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.54% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.71% | 10.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.06% | 12.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.96% | 7.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.43% | 10.63% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +173.29% | +71.53% |
| CAGRi | +10.58% | +5.55% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.44% | 21.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.55 | 0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.99% | 30.83% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.54% | 19.09% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.56% | 8.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.85% | 10.41% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.67% | 11.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.98% | 16.44% |
| Category | KO | MDLZ |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Coca-Cola Company | Mondelez International, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive | Consumer Defensive |
| Industry | Beverages - Non-Alcoholic | Confectioners |
| Core business | Global beverage company selling concentrate and syrup to a network of independent bottlers, plus finished products, across sparkling soft drinks, water, sports drinks, juice, coffee, and tea brands. | Global snacking company centred on biscuits and chocolate, with brands including Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, and Ritz, and an unusually high share of revenue from emerging markets for a packaged food company. |
| Investor focus | Unit case volume growth, price and mix, emerging market performance, currency effects, and the long dividend growth record. | Cocoa and other input cost trends, pricing actions and the volume response, emerging market growth, and margin recovery. |
- Concentrate model keeps capital intensity low, with bottlers carrying the heavy manufacturing and distribution assets
- Exceptional brand strength supports consistent pricing power in most markets
- Very long record of annual dividend increases across decades
- Leading positions in biscuits and chocolate categories with strong local brand equity
- High emerging market exposure provides structurally faster volume growth
- Snacking categories have shown resilient demand across economic cycles
- Significant international revenue makes reported results sensitive to currency moves
- Sugary drink consumption faces health-driven pressure and taxes in various markets
- Volume growth in developed markets is structurally slow, leaving price and mix to do the work
- Cocoa cost inflation has been severe and directly compresses chocolate margins
- Aggressive pricing to offset input costs risks losing volume to private label
- Substantial currency exposure from its emerging market weighting
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