LULU vs DECK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Lululemon is a premium athletic apparel brand facing slowing domestic growth, while Deckers operates a diversified footwear portfolio anchored by the fast-growing HOKA brand alongside the mature UGG label.
Investors weighing Lululemon against Deckers are choosing between a premium apparel brand working through a domestic growth slowdown and a diversified footwear company balancing a high-growth brand with a seasonal legacy brand.
DECK holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DECK leads on both 1-year return (-10.22%) and forward P/E quality (10.05x vs 10.76x for LULU), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. DECK leads on both revenue growth (5.70%) and operating margin (15.23%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DECK (+46.07%) than for LULU (+5.60%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe in the durability of Lululemon's premium athletic apparel brand
- Want exposure to international expansion, particularly in China
- Can tolerate a slowdown in core domestic same-store sales
- Value a vertically integrated, high-margin retail model
- Want exposure to the fast-growing HOKA performance running brand
- Value a diversified footwear portfolio spanning performance and lifestyle
- Are comfortable with UGG's seasonal sales patterns
- Believe in continued market share gains in performance running
| Metric | LULU | DECK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 36.8 | 55.1 |
| AI ranki | #1469 | #257 |
| Latest closei | $99.09 | $86.58 |
| 1M returni | +0.73% | +11.70% |
| 3M returni | -16.58% | -20.59% |
| 6M returni | -39.18% | -20.08% |
| 1Y returni | -40.70% | -10.22% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LULU | DECK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.02K (-39.8%) started 2025-10-16 | $8.74K (-12.6%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $2.37K (-76.3%) started 2021-10-18 | $14.13K (+41.3%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $18.06K (+80.6%) started 2016-10-17 | $92.88K (+828.8%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LULU | DECK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $13.69B | $11.45B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 9.76 | 11.96 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.76 | 10.05 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.25 | 1.88 |
| Analyst targeti | $127.35 | $122.81 |
| Target upsidei | +5.60% | +46.07% |
| Metric | LULU | DECK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 4.30% | 5.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -35.00% | 1.10% |
| EPS growthi | -35.00% | +1.10% |
| FCF margini | +10.12% | +15.77% |
| Operating margini | 11.21% | 15.23% |
| Profit margini | 13.03% | 18.36% |
| ROIC proxyi | 32.03% | 42.56% |
| Return on equityi | 32.03% | 42.56% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.86 | 1.17 |
| Debt/equityi | 44.26 | 20.52 |
| Current ratioi | 2.23 | 2.75 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.94 | 1.87 |
Over the past year, LULU and DECK have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.38), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LULU | DECK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -39.81% | -12.60% |
| CAGRi | -39.85% | -12.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.12% | 44.23% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.00 | -0.19 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.26 | -0.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.44% | 35.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 54.10% | 28.41% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.92% | 14.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.51% | 17.84% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.38% | 15.21% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.31% | 21.11% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -76.26% | +41.33% |
| CAGRi | -25.02% | +7.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.31% | 44.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.55 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.73 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.03% | 65.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 80.62% | 61.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 39.32% | 26.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 44.67% | 34.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.80% | 20.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.32% | 22.82% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +80.56% | +828.80% |
| CAGRi | +6.09% | +24.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.24% | 42.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.24 | 0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.34 | 0.92 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.03% | 65.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 80.62% | 61.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.05% | 17.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 32.75% | 25.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.44% | 20.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.43% | 40.56% |
| Category | LULU | DECK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lululemon Athletica Inc. | Deckers Brands |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Apparel Retail | Footwear & Accessories |
| Core business | Lululemon designs and sells premium athletic apparel and accessories, known for its yoga-inspired products and strong direct-to-consumer retail presence. | Deckers owns a portfolio of footwear brands, most notably HOKA performance running shoes and UGG casual and lifestyle footwear, sold globally through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels. |
| Investor focus | Watch same-store sales trends, international expansion progress, and the brand's ability to sustain premium pricing amid rising competition. | Watch the growth trajectory of HOKA alongside the seasonal, more mature UGG brand, and overall direct-to-consumer sales mix. |
- Strong brand loyalty and premium pricing power in athletic apparel
- Growing international presence, particularly in China
- Vertically integrated retail model with high-margin direct sales
- Diversified brand portfolio spanning performance and lifestyle footwear
- HOKA has become a significant growth driver within the running category
- Established, profitable operating history with strong brand equity in UGG
- Slowing domestic same-store sales growth in a maturing core market
- Increasing competition from both established and newer athletic apparel brands
- Premium pricing model is sensitive to shifts in discretionary consumer spending
- UGG's seasonal and trend-dependent sales can create revenue volatility
- Competition intensifying in the performance running category from newer entrants
- Reliance on wholesale partners alongside direct-to-consumer growth efforts
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