SMR vs BWXT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
SMR and BWXT are both described as nuclear stocks but they sit at opposite ends of the risk spectrum. NuScale is a pre-commercial reactor designer whose value depends almost entirely on future orders and regulatory progress. BWX Technologies is an established, profitable manufacturer whose nuclear revenue already exists and is underwritten by the US Navy. The choice is less about which company is better run and more about whether an investor wants venture-style optionality or defense-contractor durability.
Use this SMR vs BWXT comparison to be explicit about what you are buying. BWXT is priced on earnings it already produces; NuScale is priced on earnings it hopes to produce. Those two setups fail in completely different ways, so valuation multiples between them are not directly comparable.
BWXT holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. BWXT leads on both 1-year return (-20.88%) and forward P/E quality (29.50x vs -14.67x for SMR), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. BWXT leads on both revenue growth (18.00%) and operating margin (10.39%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for BWXT (+51.26%) than for SMR (+32.15%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct, high-beta exposure to small modular reactors becoming commercially viable
- Accept that the company may raise equity again before its first plant generates revenue
- Believe data center demand for firm carbon-free power will pull SMR orders forward
- Are sizing the position small enough to survive a multi-year delay or a cancelled project
- Prefer nuclear exposure that is already profitable and backed by government contracts
- Value sole-source supplier economics and visible multi-year backlog
- Want defense-budget durability rather than dependence on commercial reactor orders
- Are willing to accept slower growth in exchange for far lower business-model risk
| Metric | SMR | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 21.5 | 47.3 |
| AI ranki | #4699 | #605 |
| Latest closei | $8.42 | $138.47 |
| 1M returni | -9.17% | -9.59% |
| 6M returni | -18.25% | -31.65% |
| 1Y returni | -77.67% | -20.88% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SMR | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $2.23K (-77.7%) started 2025-09-25 | $7.86K (-21.4%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $8.37K (-16.3%) started 2022-03-01 | $24.82K (+148.2%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $8.37K (-16.3%) started 2022-03-01 | $35.72K (+257.2%) started 2016-09-26 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | SMR | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $3.92B | $14.2B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 40.16 |
| Forward P/Ei | -14.67 | 29.50 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 249.45 | 4.61 |
| Analyst targeti | $12.63 | $234.45 |
| Target upsidei | +32.15% | +51.26% |
| Metric | SMR | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -99.10% | 18.00% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 14.10% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +14.10% |
| FCF margini | -1913.88% | +4.14% |
| Operating margini | -85337.33% | 10.39% |
| Profit margini | 0.00% | 10.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | -55.18% | 28.29% |
| Return on equityi | -55.18% | 28.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.66% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 26.94% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.31 | 0.76 |
| Debt/equityi | 0.33 | 151.40 |
| Current ratioi | 37.88 | 2.40 |
| Quick ratioi | 37.34 | 2.26 |
Over the past year, SMR and BWXT have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.51), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | SMR | BWXT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -77.67% | -21.42% |
| CAGRi | -77.69% | -21.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 100.13% | 44.42% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.05 | -0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.48 | -0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.79% | 41.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 84.24% | 41.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 67.82% | 14.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 71.33% | 18.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 15.67% | 9.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.02% | 12.84% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -16.30% | +148.20% |
| CAGRi | -3.82% | +19.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 99.75% | 33.88% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.41 | 0.58 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.64 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.47% | 41.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 84.24% | 41.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.33% | 9.04% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 51.05% | 12.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 34.85% | 12.68% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 59.70% | 12.84% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -16.30% | +257.25% |
| CAGRi | -3.82% | +13.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 99.75% | 31.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.41 | 0.42 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.64 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.47% | 48.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | 84.24% | 41.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.33% | 13.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 51.05% | 17.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 34.85% | 23.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 59.70% | 30.21% |
| Category | SMR | BWXT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NuScale Power Corporation | BWX Technologies, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Industrials |
| Industry | Specialty Industrial Machinery | Aerospace & Defense |
| Core business | Designer of light-water small modular reactors. NuScale's module is the first SMR design to receive US Nuclear Regulatory Commission design approval, and the company licenses it through commercial partner ENTRA1 rather than building and owning plants itself. | Manufacturer of nuclear reactors and components for the US Navy's submarine and aircraft carrier fleet, where it is effectively the sole qualified supplier. Also produces medical radioisotopes, fuels commercial reactors, and works on government microreactor programs. |
| Investor focus | Signed customer orders, regulatory milestones for the uprated module, cash burn versus runway, and whether any plant reaches a final investment decision. | Naval propulsion backlog and shipbuilding budgets, medical isotope ramp, government microreactor contracts, and margin performance on long-cycle programs. |
- Holds the first NRC-approved small modular reactor design in the United States, a regulatory lead that is expensive and slow for rivals to replicate
- Asset-light licensing model avoids the balance-sheet risk of owning and constructing power plants
- Positioned for data center and industrial buyers who want firm carbon-free power that wind and solar cannot supply
- Sole-source position on US naval nuclear propulsion creates unusually durable, budget-backed revenue
- Already profitable with a large multi-year backlog, unlike most companies marketed as nuclear plays
- Medical radioisotope and special materials businesses add growth that is not tied to the defense cycle
- No commercial NuScale plant is generating electricity yet, so the investment case rests on future orders rather than current earnings
- The cancelled Carbon Free Power Project showed how cost escalation can kill an SMR deal before construction
- Ongoing cash burn means equity raises are a live dilution risk for existing holders
- Revenue is concentrated in US government programs, making it sensitive to defense appropriations and shipbuilding schedules
- Fixed-price and long-cycle contracts can absorb cost overruns before they show up in reported margins
- Commercial and microreactor growth is real but small relative to the naval business, limiting how fast the story can change
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on SMR and BWXT. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside SMR and BWXT, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.