TOST vs SHOP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Toast is generally evaluated as a vertical-specific software and payments platform deeply embedded in restaurant operations, while Shopify is assessed as a horizontal commerce platform serving a far broader range of merchants globally. The choice often comes down to preferring a focused, high-attach vertical SaaS story versus a diversified, larger-scale commerce ecosystem.
Use this comparison to weigh Toast's restaurant-vertical focus and payments attach economics against Shopify's broader merchant base and commerce platform scale.
SHOP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SHOP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+4.31% vs -24.41%), though TOST has the better forward P/E setup (19.68x vs 60.08x for SHOP). SHOP leads on both revenue growth (33.70%) and operating margin (17.55%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +13.61% for TOST and +16.14% for SHOP.
- Want focused exposure to restaurant industry digitization
- Believe payments attach rate expansion will drive margin improvement
- Are comfortable with cyclicality tied to restaurant consumer spending
- Value a company still early in penetrating a large addressable market
- Want diversified exposure across e-commerce verticals and merchant sizes
- Believe merchant solutions and payments attach will keep expanding margins
- Are comfortable with sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending
- Value platform scale and a broad partner ecosystem as a moat
| Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 23.4 | 73.0 |
| AI rank | #3619 | #27 |
| Latest close | $34.09 | $147.37 |
| 1M return | +5.64% | +25.80% |
| 6M return | +24.83% | +22.07% |
| 1Y return | -24.41% | +4.31% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.78K (-22.2%) started 2025-09-02 | $10.6K (+6.0%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $5.45K (-45.5%) started 2021-09-22 | $9.66K (-3.3%) started 2021-08-31 |
| 10Y ago | $5.45K (-45.5%) started 2021-09-22 | $356.31K (+3463.1%) started 2016-08-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $19.7B | $191.24B |
| Trailing P/E | 43.15 | 99.57 |
| Forward P/E | 19.68 | 60.08 |
| Price/Sales | 2.90 | 14.41 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.73 | 14.47 |
| Analyst target | $38.73 | $171.15 |
| Target upside | +13.61% | +16.14% |
| Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 23.10% | 33.70% |
| Earnings growth | 100.00% | 68.10% |
| EPS growth | +100.00% | +68.10% |
| FCF margin | +6.97% | +11.97% |
| Operating margin | 7.44% | 17.55% |
| Profit margin | 7.14% | 14.53% |
| ROIC proxy | 25.16% | 15.54% |
| Return on equity | 25.16% | 15.54% |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.73 | 2.59 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | 1.40 |
| Current ratio | 2.40 | 5.35 |
| Quick ratio | 1.68 | 3.72 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -22.15% | +5.99% |
| CAGR | -22.27% | +6.03% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.40 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdown | 49.01% | 46.71% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.74% | 15.62% | |
| Max wkly drop | 21.48% | 22.56% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -45.46% | -3.35% |
| CAGR | -11.55% | -0.68% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.03 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.56% | 84.82% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.84% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 36.74% | 34.38% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -45.46% | +3463.10% |
| CAGR | -11.55% | +42.96% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.03 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdown | 80.56% | 84.82% | |
| Max daily drop | 22.84% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 36.74% | 34.38% |
| Category | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Toast, Inc. | Shopify Inc. |
| Sector | Restaurant Technology | E-Commerce Software |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Toast provides an integrated point-of-sale, payments, and restaurant management software platform tailored specifically to restaurants of all sizes. | Shopify provides a commerce platform that lets merchants of all sizes build online stores, manage payments, and run omnichannel retail operations. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch net new restaurant location additions, payments and fintech attach rates, and the path to sustained GAAP profitability. | Investors focus on gross merchandise volume growth, merchant solutions attach rate, international expansion, and operating margin expansion. |
- Purpose-built platform with deep restaurant-specific functionality
- Payments processing attached to software creates high switching costs
- Expanding into enterprise restaurant chains beyond its SMB base
- Broad merchant base spanning small businesses to large enterprise brands
- Growing merchant solutions revenue including Shopify Payments and capital
- Strong platform ecosystem with apps, themes, and partner network
- Restaurant industry is cyclical and sensitive to consumer spending
- Competition from other vertical POS providers and payment processors
- Margins depend heavily on continued fintech and payments attach growth
- Exposure to overall consumer discretionary spending trends
- Competitive pressure from Amazon, BigCommerce, and other commerce platforms
- GMV growth deceleration risk as the merchant base matures
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