TOST vs SHOP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Toast is generally evaluated as a vertical-specific software and payments platform deeply embedded in restaurant operations, while Shopify is assessed as a horizontal commerce platform serving a far broader range of merchants globally. The choice often comes down to preferring a focused, high-attach vertical SaaS story versus a diversified, larger-scale commerce ecosystem.
Use this comparison to weigh Toast's restaurant-vertical focus and payments attach economics against Shopify's broader merchant base and commerce platform scale.
SHOP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SHOP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+14.04% vs -13.43%), though TOST has the better forward P/E setup (19.65x vs 69.61x for SHOP). SHOP leads on both revenue growth (33.70%) and operating margin (17.55%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TOST (+14.35%) than for SHOP (+1.87%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want focused exposure to restaurant industry digitization
- Believe payments attach rate expansion will drive margin improvement
- Are comfortable with cyclicality tied to restaurant consumer spending
- Value a company still early in penetrating a large addressable market
- Want diversified exposure across e-commerce verticals and merchant sizes
- Believe merchant solutions and payments attach will keep expanding margins
- Are comfortable with sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending
- Value platform scale and a broad partner ecosystem as a moat
| Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 25.5 | 69.2 |
| AI ranki | #2637 | #44 |
| Latest closei | $32.22 | $178.14 |
| 1M returni | +1.19% | +37.18% |
| 3M returni | +6.23% | +42.44% |
| 6M returni | +13.05% | +40.33% |
| 1Y returni | -13.43% | +14.04% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.61K (-13.9%) started 2025-10-16 | $11.4K (+14.0%) started 2025-10-15 |
| 5Y ago | $6.26K (-37.4%) started 2021-10-18 | $12.5K (+25.0%) started 2021-10-15 |
| 10Y ago | $5.15K (-48.5%) started 2021-09-22 | $423.94K (+4139.4%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $19.68B | $221.7B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 43.09 | 115.44 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.65 | 69.61 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.64 | 16.21 |
| Analyst targeti | $38.92 | $174.04 |
| Target upsidei | +14.35% | +1.87% |
| Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 23.10% | 33.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 100.00% | 68.10% |
| EPS growthi | +100.00% | +68.10% |
| FCF margini | +6.97% | +11.97% |
| Operating margini | 7.44% | 17.55% |
| Profit margini | 7.14% | 14.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 25.16% | 15.54% |
| Return on equityi | 25.16% | 15.54% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.73 | 2.63 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 1.40 |
| Current ratioi | 2.40 | 5.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.68 | 3.72 |
Over the past year, TOST and SHOP have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.52), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -13.85% | +14.04% |
| CAGRi | -13.87% | +14.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.65% | 58.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.18 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.25 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.77% | 46.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 17.43% | 0.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.89% | 23.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.56% | 26.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.74% | 15.62% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.48% | 22.56% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -37.44% | +25.05% |
| CAGRi | -8.96% | +4.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.86% | 66.85% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.07 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.10 | 0.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.56% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.60% | 0.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.99% | 48.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 59.90% | 53.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.84% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.74% | 34.38% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | -48.46% | +4139.41% |
| CAGRi | -12.27% | +45.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.97% | 59.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.01 | 0.85 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.01 | 1.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 80.56% | 84.82% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.60% | 0.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.50% | 28.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 59.52% | 38.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.84% | 18.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 36.74% | 34.38% |
| Category | TOST | SHOP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Toast, Inc. | Shopify Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Software - Infrastructure | Software - Application |
| Core business | Toast provides an integrated point-of-sale, payments, and restaurant management software platform tailored specifically to restaurants of all sizes. | Shopify provides a commerce platform that lets merchants of all sizes build online stores, manage payments, and run omnichannel retail operations. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch net new restaurant location additions, payments and fintech attach rates, and the path to sustained GAAP profitability. | Investors focus on gross merchandise volume growth, merchant solutions attach rate, international expansion, and operating margin expansion. |
- Purpose-built platform with deep restaurant-specific functionality
- Payments processing attached to software creates high switching costs
- Expanding into enterprise restaurant chains beyond its SMB base
- Broad merchant base spanning small businesses to large enterprise brands
- Growing merchant solutions revenue including Shopify Payments and capital
- Strong platform ecosystem with apps, themes, and partner network
- Restaurant industry is cyclical and sensitive to consumer spending
- Competition from other vertical POS providers and payment processors
- Margins depend heavily on continued fintech and payments attach growth
- Exposure to overall consumer discretionary spending trends
- Competitive pressure from Amazon, BigCommerce, and other commerce platforms
- GMV growth deceleration risk as the merchant base matures
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