PENN vs DKNG: Penn Entertainment vs DraftKings Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Penn Entertainment is a regional casino operator trying to build market share in online sports betting through ESPN Bet, while DraftKings is the #2 US online sports betting company competing with FanDuel's #1 position. DraftKings has a stronger existing market position; ESPN Bet is earlier stage but backed by ESPN's sports media reach.
PENN vs DKNG is ESPN brand-powered sports betting challenger versus established OSB market duopoly — DraftKings wins if FanDuel-DraftKings duopoly sustains and profitability improves; Penn wins if ESPN Bet's 100M+ user reach translates to sustainable market share at a manageable customer acquisition cost.
PENN holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PENN leads on both 1-year return (-11.31%) and forward P/E quality (14.13x vs 14.87x for DKNG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. PENN leads on both revenue growth (5.20%) and operating margin (7.93%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +44.43% for PENN and +43.84% for DKNG.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- believe ESPN's sports media integration gives ESPN Bet a unique customer acquisition advantage over DraftKings
- value PENN's regional casino cash flows as a partial funding mechanism for ESPN Bet's promotional spending
- are comfortable with higher execution risk and a longer OSB profitability timeline vs DraftKings
- prefer a combined casino-and-digital gaming company over DraftKings' pure digital focus
- want the #2 US OSB operator with an established market position and path to profitability as markets mature
- believe DraftKings' product quality and iGaming expansion create durable competitive advantages
- value DraftKings' structural profitability improvement as promotional spending requirements decrease in mature markets
- prefer a pure-play OSB and iGaming investment vs PENN's diluted casino-and-sports-betting mix
| Metric | PENN | DKNG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 33.5 | 34.5 |
| AI ranki | #1882 | #1006 |
| Latest closei | $15.21 | $19.31 |
| 1M returni | -14.26% | -21.63% |
| 3M returni | -28.49% | -22.26% |
| 6M returni | -5.76% | -18.66% |
| 1Y returni | -11.31% | -45.61% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PENN | DKNG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.99K (-10.1%) started 2025-10-16 | $5.49K (-45.1%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $1.97K (-80.3%) started 2021-10-18 | $3.97K (-60.3%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $11.22K (+12.2%) started 2016-10-17 | $19.7K (+97.0%) started 2019-07-25 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PENN | DKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.27B | $12.12B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.13 | 14.87 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.71 | 2.02 |
| Analyst targeti | $24.39 | $35.12 |
| Target upsidei | +44.43% | +43.84% |
| Metric | PENN | DKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.20% | -4.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -0.76% | +7.42% |
| Operating margini | 7.93% | -4.72% |
| Profit margini | -12.66% | -2.68% |
| ROIC proxyi | -37.58% | -21.14% |
| Return on equityi | -37.58% | -21.14% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.41 | 1.63 |
| Debt/equityi | 596.73 | 336.48 |
| Current ratioi | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.76 | 0.69 |
Over the past year, PENN and DKNG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.43), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PENN | DKNG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -10.11% | -45.13% |
| CAGRi | -10.12% | -45.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.74% | 51.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.03 | -0.98 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.05 | -1.32 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.81% | 48.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 31.05% | 46.72% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.82% | 26.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.43% | 29.37% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.40% | 13.51% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.50% | 18.26% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -80.32% | -60.31% |
| CAGRi | -27.79% | -16.89% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.65% | 61.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.43 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.61 | -0.08 | |
| Max drawdowni | 85.54% | 79.08% | |
| Current drawdowni | 81.30% | 63.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 69.48% | 41.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 70.76% | 46.37% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.08% | 27.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.18% | 34.71% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +12.17% | +97.04% |
| CAGRi | +1.16% | +9.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 61.66% | 62.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.26 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.38 | 0.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.38% | 85.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 88.85% | 73.17% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 51.70% | 45.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 61.67% | 51.62% | |
| Max daily dropi | 44.80% | 27.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 77.18% | 37.74% |
| Category | PENN | DKNG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | PENN Entertainment, Inc. | DraftKings Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Resorts & Casinos | Gambling |
| Core business | Regional casino operator with 43+ properties and ESPN Bet (online sports betting) built through a partnership with ESPN/Disney. PENN exited its Barstool Sportsbook at a significant loss and pivoted to ESPN Bet, launched in November 2023. | US online sports betting (OSB) and iGaming company with the #2 market share in US OSB behind FanDuel. DraftKings also operates daily fantasy sports and has expanded into casino gaming in states where iGaming is legal. |
| Investor focus | ESPN Bet market share growth and path to profitability, regional casino performance, and whether the ESPN brand can overcome DraftKings/FanDuel market share dominance. | Revenue growth from new state legalization, hold rate improvement, profitability path, and structural gross margin expansion as markets mature. |
- ESPN Bet benefits from ESPN's 100M+ monthly app users and deep sports content integration — a brand that reaches more sports fans than DraftKings or FanDuel
- Regional casino business provides steady cash flows that partially fund ESPN Bet's promotional spending
- ESPN partnership gives PENN access to sports content that other betting operators cannot leverage for marketing
- DraftKings has built the #2 US OSB market share through significant promotional spending and product quality — near-duopoly with FanDuel across most states
- iGaming expansion provides a higher-margin gaming channel alongside sports betting
- As OSB markets mature, promotional spending requirements decrease and structural profitability improves
- Barstool Sportsbook was a failed bet ($400M+ loss) — ESPN Bet must succeed where Barstool failed to validate PENN's online strategy
- DraftKings and FanDuel have entrenched first-mover advantages and market shares that are extremely difficult to displace
- ESPN Bet promotional spend is significant — losses in the digital segment are material and timeline to profitability is uncertain
- FanDuel leads DraftKings in market share in most states — displacement as #1 is very difficult
- New state legalization pace is slowing as most major states have legalized — growth increasingly depends on retention vs new market acquisition
- ESPN Bet is a well-capitalized competitor that could pressure DraftKings' market share if ESPN brand traction improves
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