TSCO vs FAST Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Tractor Supply's rural-lifestyle retail-store growth against Fastenal's industrial-fastener onsite-vending distribution model.
Use this Tractor Supply Company vs Fastenal comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
FAST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FAST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+26.23% vs -39.36%), though TSCO has the better forward P/E setup (16.93x vs 35.56x for FAST). FAST leads on both revenue growth (14.70%) and operating margin (21.02%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TSCO (+2.30%) than for FAST (-2.51%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | TSCO | FAST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.4 | 58.8 |
| AI ranki | #755 | #167 |
| Latest closei | $33.65 | $52.55 |
| 1M returni | +6.79% | +5.18% |
| 3M returni | +11.39% | +12.62% |
| 6M returni | -4.13% | +16.96% |
| 1Y returni | -39.36% | +26.23% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSCO | FAST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.2K (-38.0%) started 2025-10-29 | $12.79K (+27.9%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $8.32K (-16.8%) started 2021-11-01 | $24.36K (+143.6%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $30.01K (+200.1%) started 2016-10-31 | $111.92K (+1019.2%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSCO | FAST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $18.09B | $57.12B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.08 | 42.55 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.93 | 35.56 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.81 | 6.34 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.55 | 6.56 |
| Analyst targeti | $35.52 | $48.53 |
| Target upsidei | +2.30% | -2.51% |
| Metric | TSCO | FAST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.30% | 14.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -15.00% | 14.60% |
| EPS growthi | -15.00% | +14.60% |
| FCF margini | +0.66% | +10.47% |
| Operating margini | 12.07% | 21.02% |
| Profit margini | 6.42% | 15.45% |
| ROIC proxyi | 39.51% | 34.33% |
| Return on equityi | 39.51% | 34.33% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.76% | 1.93% |
| Payout ratioi | 48.96% | 78.05% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.45 | 0.71 |
| Debt/equityi | 248.71 | 10.85 |
| Current ratioi | 1.33 | 4.18 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.14 | 2.00 |
Over the past year, TSCO and FAST have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.28), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSCO | FAST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -37.96% | +27.89% |
| CAGRi | -38.00% | +27.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.10% | 24.34% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.36 | 0.95 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.74 | 1.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.13% | 12.02% | |
| Current drawdowni | 40.10% | 0.34% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.54% | 4.39% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.78% | 5.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.69% | 6.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.40% | 8.92% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -19.10% | +102.38% |
| CAGRi | -4.16% | +15.17% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.50% | 55.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.15 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.20 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.49% | 51.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.29% | 0.34% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.40% | 10.33% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.64% | 12.69% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.52% | 50.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.40% | 49.41% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +183.74% | +576.25% |
| CAGRi | +11.00% | +21.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 29.32% | 44.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.49 | 0.97 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.49% | 51.17% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.29% | 0.34% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.17% | 8.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.88% | 10.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.52% | 50.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.40% | 49.41% |
| Category | TSCO | FAST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | TSCO | FAST |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Industrials |
| Industry | Specialty Retail | Industrial Distribution |
| Core business | Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. | Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. |
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