GSK vs NVO Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GSK and Novo Nordisk are both major European pharmaceutical companies, but GSK is diversified across vaccines, specialty medicines, and general medicines with a long dividend track record, while Novo Nordisk is more concentrated around its leading position in the rapidly growing GLP-1 diabetes and obesity treatment market.
GSK offers diversified exposure across vaccines and specialty medicines with an emphasis on consistent dividend income, while NVO offers concentrated exposure to GLP-1 market growth with a stronger recent earnings growth trajectory. The decision depends on whether you prioritize diversified defensive income or concentrated growth exposure.
GSK holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. GSK has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+15.39% vs -22.98%), though NVO has the better forward P/E setup (1.71x vs 10.28x for GSK). On fundamentals, GSK is growing revenue faster (5.30%), while NVO maintains the higher operating margin (42.54%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GSK (+19.24%) than for NVO (+15.79%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure across vaccines, specialty medicines, and general medicines
- Value a long-established dividend track record supported by diversified cash flow
- Believe leadership in vaccine development provides a differentiated pharmaceutical niche
- Prefer a broadly diversified pharmaceutical company over one concentrated in a single drug category
- Want concentrated exposure to the rapidly growing GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatment market
- Value the company's leading market position and decades of diabetes care expertise
- Believe continued GLP-1 demand growth will support sustained revenue and earnings expansion
- Are comfortable with revenue concentration in a single, albeit fast-growing, drug category
| Metric | GSK | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.8 | 41.5 |
| AI ranki | #954 | #1069 |
| Latest closei | $50.75 | $39.05 |
| 1M returni | +2.09% | +2.31% |
| 3M returni | -0.27% | -18.91% |
| 6M returni | -5.08% | -3.94% |
| 1Y returni | +15.39% | -22.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GSK | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.96K (+19.6%) started 2025-10-23 | $8.09K (-19.1%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $19.53K (+95.3%) started 2021-10-25 | $9.29K (-7.1%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $35.69K (+256.9%) started 2016-10-24 | $31.33K (+213.3%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GSK | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $101.68B | $172.28B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 16.01 | 9.46 |
| Forward P/Ei | 10.28 | 1.71 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.06 | 0.52 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.51 | 0.81 |
| Analyst targeti | $60.51 | $45.22 |
| Target upsidei | +19.24% | +15.79% |
| Metric | GSK | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.30% | 2.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -69.50% | -20.60% |
| EPS growthi | -69.50% | -20.60% |
| FCF margini | +10.49% | +11.44% |
| Operating margini | 30.94% | 42.54% |
| Profit margini | 14.52% | 35.35% |
| ROIC proxyi | 33.38% | 59.81% |
| Return on equityi | 33.38% | 59.81% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.58% | 4.60% |
| Payout ratioi | 56.55% | 45.09% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | 7 yrs |
| Betai | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| Debt/equityi | 106.50 | 63.33 |
| Current ratioi | 0.81 | 0.87 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.52 | 0.64 |
Over the past year, GSK and NVO have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.14), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GSK | NVO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +15.39% | -22.98% |
| CAGRi | +15.40% | -22.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.34% | 45.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.51 | -0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.77 | -0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.37% | 43.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.85% | 35.92% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.47% | 23.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.66% | 26.78% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.64% | 16.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.81% | 26.95% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +56.07% | -17.51% |
| CAGRi | +9.32% | -3.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.50% | 39.06% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.30 | -0.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.44 | -0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.63% | 74.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.85% | 71.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.23% | 26.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.78% | 37.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.69% | 21.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.87% | 33.45% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +98.36% | +141.72% |
| CAGRi | +7.09% | +9.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 22.44% | 32.79% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.31 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.63% | 74.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.85% | 71.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.78% | 17.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.47% | 27.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.04% | 21.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.31% | 33.45% |
| Category | GSK | NVO |
|---|---|---|
| Company | GSK plc (ADR) | Novo Nordisk A/S (ADR) |
| Sector | Pharmaceuticals | GLP-1 |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | A British pharmaceutical and biotechnology company with a diversified portfolio spanning vaccines, specialty medicines including HIV and respiratory treatments, and general medicines sold across global markets. | A Danish pharmaceutical company specializing in diabetes and obesity care, best known for its GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs used for both diabetes management and weight loss treatment. |
| Investor focus | Vaccine portfolio performance and pipeline progress, specialty medicine growth in areas like HIV treatment, and dividend sustainability supported by diversified cash flow. | GLP-1 drug demand and manufacturing capacity expansion to meet obesity treatment demand, competitive dynamics within the growing GLP-1 market, and pipeline diversification beyond diabetes and obesity. |
- Leading position in vaccine development and manufacturing provides a differentiated, less commoditized segment of the pharmaceutical industry
- Diversification across vaccines, specialty medicines, and general medicines reduces reliance on any single product category
- Established global commercial infrastructure and long operating history support consistent dividend payments to shareholders
- Leading position in the rapidly growing GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatment market provides substantial revenue growth exposure
- Long-standing expertise in diabetes care built over decades supports continued innovation within its core therapeutic focus
- Strong demand for its GLP-1 products has driven substantial revenue and earnings growth in recent years
- Vaccine revenue can be variable year to year depending on public health needs, government contracts, and seasonal demand patterns
- Patent expirations on existing key products require continued pipeline innovation to offset eventual generic competition
- Faces competition from other large pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies across its various vaccine and specialty medicine categories
- Revenue is heavily concentrated in the GLP-1 drug category, making the company sensitive to competitive dynamics within that specific market
- Manufacturing capacity constraints have at times limited the company's ability to fully meet GLP-1 product demand
- Faces intensifying competition from other pharmaceutical companies developing competing GLP-1 and next-generation obesity treatments
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