MAIN vs HTGC Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Main Street Capital's lower/middle-market lending model against Hercules Capital's venture-debt focus on yield and premium-to-NAV.
Use this Main Street Capital vs Hercules Capital comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
HTGC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. HTGC leads on both 1-year return (+1.55%) and forward P/E quality (9.03x vs 14.92x for MAIN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, HTGC is growing revenue faster (8.50%), while MAIN maintains the higher operating margin (87.21%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HTGC (+9.83%) than for MAIN (+2.69%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 36.5 | 33.1 |
| AI ranki | #1579 | #2063 |
| Latest closei | $56.37 | $17.58 |
| 1M returni | -3.69% | +5.27% |
| 6M returni | +6.55% | +32.48% |
| 1Y returni | -9.23% | +1.55% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.09K (+0.9%) started 2025-09-15 | $11.63K (+16.3%) started 2025-09-15 |
| 5Y ago | $32.48K (+224.8%) started 2021-09-14 | $38.84K (+288.4%) started 2021-09-14 |
| 10Y ago | $109.83K (+998.3%) started 2016-09-14 | $237.16K (+2271.6%) started 2016-09-14 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.42B | $3.32B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.63 | 8.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.92 | 9.03 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.75 | 9.83 |
| Analyst targeti | $59.50 | $19.50 |
| Target upsidei | +2.69% | +9.83% |
| Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.90% | 8.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 15.30% | 54.70% |
| EPS growthi | +15.30% | +54.70% |
| FCF margini | +43.17% | +45.55% |
| Operating margini | 87.21% | 83.19% |
| Profit margini | 78.49% | 67.68% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.92% | 17.32% |
| Return on equityi | 14.92% | 17.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | 5.49% | 10.64% |
| Payout ratioi | 86.35% | 93.07% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 5 yrs | 1 yr |
| Betai | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Debt/equityi | 80.34 | 103.33 |
| Current ratioi | 1.69 | 0.12 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.03 | 0.12 |
Over the past year, MAIN and HTGC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.66), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -6.71% | +3.20% |
| CAGRi | -6.73% | +3.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.63% | 24.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.32 | 0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.44 | 0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.33% | 24.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.36% | 0.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.54% | 9.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.88% | 11.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.56% | 7.91% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.12% | 12.58% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +101.97% | +86.01% |
| CAGRi | +15.10% | +13.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.74% | 25.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.55 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 0.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.06% | 35.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.64% | 3.41% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.06% | 10.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.38% | 13.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.96% | 11.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.42% | 25.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +255.25% | +278.38% |
| CAGRi | +13.52% | +14.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.44% | 27.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.53% | 57.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.64% | 3.41% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.73% | 9.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.26% | 13.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.93% | 18.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.65% | 43.03% |
| Category | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MAIN | HTGC |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Asset Management | Asset Management |
| Core business | Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company and a small business investment company specializing in direct and indirect investments. | Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company. |
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.