MAIN vs HTGC Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Main Street Capital's lower/middle-market lending model against Hercules Capital's venture-debt focus on yield and premium-to-NAV.
Use this Main Street Capital vs Hercules Capital comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
MAIN holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MAIN has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+6.84% vs +3.59%), though HTGC has the better forward P/E setup (9.03x vs 14.92x for MAIN). On fundamentals, HTGC is growing revenue faster (8.50%), while MAIN maintains the higher operating margin (87.21%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for HTGC (+9.83%) than for MAIN (+2.69%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 43.2 | 40.4 |
| AI ranki | #1483 | #2058 |
| Latest closei | $56.30 | $16.53 |
| 1M returni | +2.66% | -1.25% |
| 3M returni | +2.98% | +1.10% |
| 6M returni | +5.10% | +6.53% |
| 1Y returni | +6.84% | +3.59% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.52K (+15.2%) started 2025-11-03 | $11.75K (+17.5%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $30.56K (+205.6%) started 2021-11-03 | $33.94K (+239.4%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $114.77K (+1047.7%) started 2016-11-03 | $229.35K (+2193.5%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.42B | $3.32B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 11.63 | 8.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.92 | 9.03 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.75 | 9.83 |
| Analyst targeti | $59.50 | $19.50 |
| Target upsidei | +2.69% | +9.83% |
| Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.90% | 8.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 15.30% | 54.70% |
| EPS growthi | +15.30% | +54.70% |
| FCF margini | +43.17% | +45.55% |
| Operating margini | 87.21% | 83.19% |
| Profit margini | 78.49% | 67.68% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.92% | 17.32% |
| Return on equityi | 14.92% | 17.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | 5.49% | 10.64% |
| Payout ratioi | 86.14% | 100.53% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 5 yrs | 1 yr |
| Betai | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| Debt/equityi | 80.34 | 103.33 |
| Current ratioi | 1.69 | 0.12 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.03 | 0.12 |
Over the past year, MAIN and HTGC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.64), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +6.40% | +4.23% |
| CAGRi | +6.42% | +4.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.36% | 23.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.19 | 0.11 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.28 | 0.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.33% | 24.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.53% | 6.93% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.67% | 8.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.40% | 11.44% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.56% | 7.91% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.61% | 12.58% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +89.91% | +62.54% |
| CAGRi | +13.70% | +10.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 21.85% | 26.01% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.06% | 35.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.82% | 9.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.38% | 10.58% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.58% | 13.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.96% | 11.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.42% | 25.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +271.84% | +265.92% |
| CAGRi | +14.04% | +13.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.48% | 27.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.63 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.53% | 57.30% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.82% | 9.18% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.88% | 9.65% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.34% | 13.37% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.93% | 18.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.65% | 43.03% |
| Category | MAIN | HTGC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | MAIN | HTGC |
| Sector | Financial Services | Financial Services |
| Industry | Asset Management | Asset Management |
| Core business | Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company and a small business investment company specializing in direct and indirect investments. | Hercules Capital, Inc. is a business development company. |
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AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
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