W vs ETSY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Wayfair is generally evaluated as a scaled, logistics-heavy online home goods retailer working to sustain profitability, while Etsy is assessed as a higher-margin, niche marketplace whose growth depends on reinvigorating buyer and seller engagement. The comparison contrasts a capital-intensive category leader against a more asset-light, margin-focused marketplace navigating slower growth.
Use this comparison to weigh Wayfair's scaled home goods logistics model and improving profitability against Etsy's higher-margin marketplace economics and slower recent growth.
ETSY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. W has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+37.66% vs +26.14%), though ETSY has the better forward P/E setup (12.13x vs 24.41x for W). On fundamentals, W is growing revenue faster (7.50%), while ETSY maintains the higher operating margin (18.74%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for W (+30.43%) than for ETSY (+4.13%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a leading online home goods retailer
- Believe continued cost discipline can sustain improved profitability
- Are comfortable with sensitivity to housing and big-ticket spending cycles
- Value proprietary logistics infrastructure as a competitive moat
- Value a high-margin, asset-light marketplace business model
- Believe the handmade and unique goods niche retains differentiated demand
- Want exposure to a diversified marketplace portfolio including Depop and Reverb
- Are comfortable with recent gross merchandise sales growth deceleration
| Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 49.1 | 51.8 |
| AI ranki | #533 | #569 |
| Latest closei | $111.93 | $89.18 |
| 1M returni | +7.95% | +20.51% |
| 3M returni | +22.35% | +6.83% |
| 6M returni | +44.78% | +49.61% |
| 1Y returni | +37.66% | +26.14% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.46K (+34.6%) started 2025-10-16 | $12.48K (+24.8%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $4.62K (-53.8%) started 2021-10-18 | $3.91K (-60.9%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $31.33K (+213.3%) started 2016-10-17 | $62.06K (+520.6%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $12.95B | $7.67B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 26.45 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.41 | 12.13 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.19 | 3.27 |
| Analyst targeti | $123.31 | $87.04 |
| Target upsidei | +30.43% | +4.13% |
| Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 7.50% | 6.20% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -7.10% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -7.10% |
| FCF margini | +3.65% | +5.77% |
| Operating margini | 3.01% | 18.74% |
| Profit margini | -2.49% | 7.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.98 | 1.82 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 0.74 | 1.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.58 | 0.89 |
Over the past year, W and ETSY have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.32), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +34.56% | +24.81% |
| CAGRi | +34.63% | +24.86% | |
| Volatilityi | 71.69% | 49.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.70 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.18 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdowni | 51.78% | 41.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.98% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.67% | 17.44% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.88% | 20.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.02% | 12.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.81% | 22.08% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -53.81% | -60.89% |
| CAGRi | -14.33% | -17.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 81.75% | 55.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.16 | -0.14 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.24 | -0.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.36% | 86.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 59.93% | 69.96% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 73.99% | 70.94% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 75.79% | 72.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.68% | 16.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 42.03% | 28.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +213.27% | +520.60% |
| CAGRi | +12.10% | +20.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 75.68% | 56.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.71 | 0.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 93.01% | 86.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 67.60% | 69.96% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 48.20% | 41.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 59.07% | 52.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.68% | 17.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 45.34% | 35.34% |
| Category | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Wayfair Inc. | Etsy, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Internet Retail | Internet Retail |
| Core business | Wayfair operates an online marketplace for furniture and home goods, connecting consumers with a large network of suppliers through its own logistics and fulfillment infrastructure. | Etsy operates a global online marketplace connecting buyers with independent sellers of handmade, vintage, and craft goods, along with its Depop and Reverb marketplaces. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch active customer trends, order growth, and progress toward sustained profitability after years of prioritizing scale and logistics investment. | Investors track gross merchandise sales trends, active buyer and seller growth, and take rate expansion through services like advertising and payments. |
- Leading position in online home goods with strong brand recognition
- Extensive proprietary logistics network improving delivery reliability
- Improving profitability discipline following prior cost restructuring
- Differentiated marketplace niche in handmade and unique goods
- High-margin business model with strong historical free cash flow generation
- Diversified marketplace portfolio including Depop and Reverb
- Sensitivity to housing market activity and big-ticket discretionary spending
- History of inconsistent profitability despite large revenue scale
- Competitive pressure from Amazon and traditional furniture retailers
- Gross merchandise sales growth has slowed in recent periods
- Competitive pressure from larger, lower-cost general marketplaces
- Buyer engagement and retention trends closely watched by investors
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