W vs ETSY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Wayfair is generally evaluated as a scaled, logistics-heavy online home goods retailer working to sustain profitability, while Etsy is assessed as a higher-margin, niche marketplace whose growth depends on reinvigorating buyer and seller engagement. The comparison contrasts a capital-intensive category leader against a more asset-light, margin-focused marketplace navigating slower growth.
Use this comparison to weigh Wayfair's scaled home goods logistics model and improving profitability against Etsy's higher-margin marketplace economics and slower recent growth.
ETSY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ETSY leads on both 1-year return (+53.42%) and forward P/E quality (12.13x vs 25.64x for W), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, W is growing revenue faster (7.50%), while ETSY maintains the higher operating margin (18.74%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for W (+24.22%) than for ETSY (+4.13%).
- Want exposure to a leading online home goods retailer
- Believe continued cost discipline can sustain improved profitability
- Are comfortable with sensitivity to housing and big-ticket spending cycles
- Value proprietary logistics infrastructure as a competitive moat
- Value a high-margin, asset-light marketplace business model
- Believe the handmade and unique goods niche retains differentiated demand
- Want exposure to a diversified marketplace portfolio including Depop and Reverb
- Are comfortable with recent gross merchandise sales growth deceleration
| Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.6 | 52.3 |
| AI rank | #1097 | #319 |
| Latest close | $99.27 | $81.33 |
| 1M return | +16.93% | -0.43% |
| 6M return | +30.05% | +50.69% |
| 1Y return | +33.07% | +53.42% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.78K (+27.8%) started 2025-09-02 | $15.73K (+57.3%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $3.54K (-64.6%) started 2021-08-31 | $3.75K (-62.5%) started 2021-09-01 |
| 10Y ago | $25.78K (+157.8%) started 2016-08-31 | $59.02K (+490.2%) started 2016-09-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $13.6B | $7.67B |
| Trailing P/E | N/A | 26.45 |
| Forward P/E | 25.64 | 12.13 |
| Price/Sales | 1.05 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 1.28 | 3.27 |
| Analyst target | $123.31 | $87.04 |
| Target upside | +24.22% | +4.13% |
| Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 7.50% | 6.20% |
| Earnings growth | N/A | -7.10% |
| EPS growth | N/A | -7.10% |
| FCF margin | +3.65% | +5.77% |
| Operating margin | 3.01% | 18.74% |
| Profit margin | -2.49% | 7.11% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | N/A |
| Return on equity | N/A | N/A |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | N/A |
| Beta | 2.98 | 1.82 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | N/A |
| Current ratio | 0.74 | 1.48 |
| Quick ratio | 0.58 | 0.89 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +27.84% | +57.31% |
| CAGR | +28.04% | +57.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.63 | 1.03 | |
| Max drawdown | 51.78% | 41.70% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.02% | 12.80% | |
| Max wkly drop | 17.81% | 22.08% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -64.64% | -62.48% |
| CAGR | -18.78% | -17.81% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.09 | -0.16 | |
| Max drawdown | 91.57% | 86.26% | |
| Max daily drop | 25.68% | 16.83% | |
| Max wkly drop | 42.03% | 28.83% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +157.78% | +490.20% |
| CAGR | +9.93% | +19.43% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.44 | 0.52 | |
| Max drawdown | 93.01% | 86.26% | |
| Max daily drop | 26.68% | 17.15% | |
| Max wkly drop | 45.34% | 35.34% |
| Category | W | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Wayfair Inc. | Etsy, Inc. |
| Sector | E-Commerce - Home Goods | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Wayfair operates an online marketplace for furniture and home goods, connecting consumers with a large network of suppliers through its own logistics and fulfillment infrastructure. | Etsy operates a global online marketplace connecting buyers with independent sellers of handmade, vintage, and craft goods, along with its Depop and Reverb marketplaces. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch active customer trends, order growth, and progress toward sustained profitability after years of prioritizing scale and logistics investment. | Investors track gross merchandise sales trends, active buyer and seller growth, and take rate expansion through services like advertising and payments. |
- Leading position in online home goods with strong brand recognition
- Extensive proprietary logistics network improving delivery reliability
- Improving profitability discipline following prior cost restructuring
- Differentiated marketplace niche in handmade and unique goods
- High-margin business model with strong historical free cash flow generation
- Diversified marketplace portfolio including Depop and Reverb
- Sensitivity to housing market activity and big-ticket discretionary spending
- History of inconsistent profitability despite large revenue scale
- Competitive pressure from Amazon and traditional furniture retailers
- Gross merchandise sales growth has slowed in recent periods
- Competitive pressure from larger, lower-cost general marketplaces
- Buyer engagement and retention trends closely watched by investors
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