WING vs CMG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Wingstop is generally evaluated as a capital-light, highly franchised growth concept with strong digital sales mix, while Chipotle Mexican Grill is assessed as a company-owned fast-casual leader with strong brand pricing power and consistent traffic growth. The comparison contrasts a franchise-driven unit growth story against a company-operated model emphasizing margin control and brand strength.
Use this comparison to weigh Wingstop's capital-light franchise growth model against Chipotle's company-owned scale, brand strength, and margin consistency.
WING holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CMG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-9.75% vs -66.37%), though WING has the better forward P/E setup (20.42x vs 27.78x for CMG). On fundamentals, CMG is growing revenue faster (9.30%), while WING maintains the higher operating margin (29.76%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WING (+85.32%) than for CMG (+14.84%).
- Prefer a capital-light, highly franchised restaurant growth model
- Believe digital and delivery sales mix will continue supporting unit economics
- Want exposure to a long runway of domestic and international unit growth
- Are comfortable with a premium valuation tied to sustained growth expectations
- Value strong brand loyalty and consistent pricing power
- Prefer a company-owned model with full operational and margin control
- Believe continued format innovation will support traffic growth
- Want exposure to a larger-scale, more established fast-casual leader
| Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 38.4 | 50.7 |
| AI rank | #1235 | #410 |
| Latest close | $109.48 | $38.03 |
| 1M return | -15.21% | +2.18% |
| 6M return | -57.53% | +3.65% |
| 1Y return | -66.37% | -9.75% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.49K (-65.1%) started 2025-09-02 | $9.11K (-8.9%) started 2025-09-02 |
| 5Y ago | $7.18K (-28.2%) started 2021-08-31 | $10.02K (+0.2%) started 2021-09-01 |
| 10Y ago | $59.42K (+494.2%) started 2016-08-31 | $45.85K (+358.5%) started 2016-09-01 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.98B | $48.12B |
| Trailing P/E | 25.88 | 35.21 |
| Forward P/E | 20.42 | 27.78 |
| Price/Sales | 4.14 | N/A |
| EV/Revenue | 5.88 | 4.25 |
| Analyst target | $202.89 | $43.67 |
| Target upside | +85.32% | +14.84% |
| Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 6.40% | 9.30% |
| Earnings growth | 19.80% | -1.30% |
| EPS growth | +19.80% | -1.30% |
| FCF margin | +13.68% | +8.99% |
| Operating margin | 29.76% | 16.11% |
| Profit margin | 16.15% | 11.43% |
| ROIC proxy | N/A | 49.56% |
| Return on equity | N/A | 49.56% |
| Dividend yield | 1.16% | N/A |
| Beta | 1.81 | 0.94 |
| Debt/equity | N/A | 246.35 |
| Current ratio | 2.97 | 0.71 |
| Quick ratio | 2.17 | 0.59 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -65.36% | -8.91% |
| CAGR | -65.59% | -8.96% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -1.53 | -0.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 65.81% | 33.47% | |
| Max daily drop | 11.11% | 18.18% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.32% | 23.26% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -32.40% | +0.17% |
| CAGR | -7.53% | +0.03% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.02 | 0.05 | |
| Max drawdown | 74.15% | 58.89% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.40% | 18.18% | |
| Max wkly drop | 24.98% | 23.26% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +357.89% | +358.55% |
| CAGR | +16.44% | +16.45% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.46 | 0.48 | |
| Max drawdown | 74.15% | 58.89% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.40% | 18.18% | |
| Max wkly drop | 30.53% | 28.03% |
| Category | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Wingstop Inc. | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. |
| Sector | Restaurants - Quick Service | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Wingstop operates and franchises a chain of chicken wing-focused quick-service restaurants, relying heavily on a franchise model with a large digital and delivery sales mix. | Chipotle Mexican Grill operates company-owned fast-casual restaurants serving customizable Mexican-inspired food, emphasizing fresh ingredients and an efficient throughput model. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch same-store sales growth, unit development pace, and the digital sales mix that supports off-premise and delivery order growth. | Investors track same-store sales and transaction growth, new restaurant unit economics, and margin trends amid continued menu and format innovation. |
- Highly franchised, capital-light business model generating strong returns on invested capital
- Long runway for unit growth domestically and internationally
- High digital sales mix supporting delivery and off-premise demand
- Strong brand loyalty and pricing power supported by consistent traffic growth
- Company-owned model providing full operational and margin control
- Continued new format innovation including digital-first and Chipotlane locations
- Chicken wing input cost volatility can affect franchisee margins
- Valuation has historically priced in sustained high unit growth
- Same-store sales growth deceleration risk as the base matures
- Valuation reflects continued expectations for above-average unit growth
- Labor and food cost inflation can pressure restaurant-level margins
- Company-owned model requires more capital per new unit than franchised peers
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