WING vs CMG Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Wingstop is generally evaluated as a capital-light, highly franchised growth concept with strong digital sales mix, while Chipotle Mexican Grill is assessed as a company-owned fast-casual leader with strong brand pricing power and consistent traffic growth. The comparison contrasts a franchise-driven unit growth story against a company-operated model emphasizing margin control and brand strength.
Use this comparison to weigh Wingstop's capital-light franchise growth model against Chipotle's company-owned scale, brand strength, and margin consistency.
WING holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CMG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-26.79% vs -47.65%), though WING has the better forward P/E setup (21.10x vs 27.78x for CMG). On fundamentals, CMG is growing revenue faster (9.30%), while WING maintains the higher operating margin (29.76%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for WING (+79.30%) than for CMG (+14.84%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Prefer a capital-light, highly franchised restaurant growth model
- Believe digital and delivery sales mix will continue supporting unit economics
- Want exposure to a long runway of domestic and international unit growth
- Are comfortable with a premium valuation tied to sustained growth expectations
- Value strong brand loyalty and consistent pricing power
- Prefer a company-owned model with full operational and margin control
- Believe continued format innovation will support traffic growth
- Want exposure to a larger-scale, more established fast-casual leader
| Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 39.4 | 50.2 |
| AI ranki | #1193 | #438 |
| Latest closei | $131.03 | $30.58 |
| 1M returni | +29.94% | -12.20% |
| 3M returni | -7.02% | -10.58% |
| 6M returni | -29.57% | -12.83% |
| 1Y returni | -47.65% | -26.79% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.32K (-46.8%) started 2025-10-16 | $7.32K (-26.8%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $7.73K (-22.7%) started 2021-10-18 | $8.25K (-17.5%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $45.28K (+352.8%) started 2016-10-17 | $38.77K (+287.7%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $3.08B | $48.12B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.89 | 35.21 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.10 | 27.78 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.73 | 4.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $202.89 | $43.67 |
| Target upsidei | +79.30% | +14.84% |
| Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.40% | 9.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 19.80% | -1.30% |
| EPS growthi | +19.80% | -1.30% |
| FCF margini | +13.68% | +8.99% |
| Operating margini | 29.76% | 16.11% |
| Profit margini | 16.15% | 11.43% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 49.56% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 49.56% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.20% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 28.44% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.81 | 0.94 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 246.35 |
| Current ratioi | 2.97 | 0.71 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.17 | 0.59 |
Over the past year, WING and CMG have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.45), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -46.79% | -26.77% |
| CAGRi | -46.84% | -26.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 62.72% | 42.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.77 | -0.62 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.09 | -0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.63% | 33.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.97% | 27.81% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 33.54% | 18.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 40.12% | 19.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.09% | 18.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.32% | 23.26% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -22.70% | -17.47% |
| CAGRi | -5.02% | -3.77% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.82% | 35.07% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.08 | -0.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.12 | -0.09 | |
| Max drawdowni | 77.19% | 58.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 69.45% | 55.39% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.57% | 22.05% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 34.27% | 27.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.40% | 18.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 24.98% | 23.26% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +352.84% | +287.73% |
| CAGRi | +16.31% | +14.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.15% | 36.28% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.63 | |
| Max drawdowni | 77.19% | 58.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 69.45% | 55.39% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.55% | 16.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.23% | 23.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.40% | 18.18% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.53% | 28.03% |
| Category | WING | CMG |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Wingstop Inc. | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Core business | Wingstop operates and franchises a chain of chicken wing-focused quick-service restaurants, relying heavily on a franchise model with a large digital and delivery sales mix. | Chipotle Mexican Grill operates company-owned fast-casual restaurants serving customizable Mexican-inspired food, emphasizing fresh ingredients and an efficient throughput model. |
| Investor focus | Investors watch same-store sales growth, unit development pace, and the digital sales mix that supports off-premise and delivery order growth. | Investors track same-store sales and transaction growth, new restaurant unit economics, and margin trends amid continued menu and format innovation. |
- Highly franchised, capital-light business model generating strong returns on invested capital
- Long runway for unit growth domestically and internationally
- High digital sales mix supporting delivery and off-premise demand
- Strong brand loyalty and pricing power supported by consistent traffic growth
- Company-owned model providing full operational and margin control
- Continued new format innovation including digital-first and Chipotlane locations
- Chicken wing input cost volatility can affect franchisee margins
- Valuation has historically priced in sustained high unit growth
- Same-store sales growth deceleration risk as the base matures
- Valuation reflects continued expectations for above-average unit growth
- Labor and food cost inflation can pressure restaurant-level margins
- Company-owned model requires more capital per new unit than franchised peers
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